Prabowo's future

On August 21, the Indonesian Constitutional Court unanimously upheld the July 9 presidential election result, thus clearing the way for 53-year-old Jakarta governor Joko "Jokowi" Widodo to take over as leader of the world's third largest democracy after India and the United States. The ruling cannot be appealed.

The decision comes after the Electoral Commission's announcement last month that Jakarta governor Jokowi had won the elections with 53.1 percent of the vote to 46.9 percent. But his rival Prabowo Subianto (main picture) - who was on his third bid for the presidency - rejected the result, alleging "massive and systematic fraud." Lawyers of the ex-general had claimed mistakes had been made at 52,000 polling stations and that their client had won the election by about one million votes.

The court's decision had been preceded by clashes between the police and hundreds of Prabowo's supporters gathered outside the courthouse. The authorities fired tear gas and warning shots to disperse the protesters. Several protestors were reportedly injured.

Gregory Poling, Indonesia expert at the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), says in a DW interview that while it is possible, it seems unlikely that Prabowo will contest the court's decision. More importantly, he adds, the former general must realize that he does not command enough support to do more than be a nuisance on the streets.

DW: What does this ruling mean for Prabowo and his party?

Gregory Poling: The ruling couldn't have come as a surprise for Prabowo or his Gerindra Party; what will really have an impact on their future is how they will respond. We have heard promises from Prabowo's advisers since the election that if the court rules against him he will concede and focus instead on establishing an effective parliamentary opposition. Now Indonesians will be watching to see whether those pledges are followed.

Why were Prabowo's fraud claims ultimately rejected by the Constitutional Court?

It was a very complicated ruling of more than 3,000 pages, responding to a wide range of claims from Prabowo's legal team. To list just a few, the court rejected claims of tampering with the voter lists on two counts: first that Prabowo's team had not raised any complaints about the voter rolls during the period before the elections when such complaints should have been made, and second because they failed to prove that any such tampering would have benefited Jokowi in any case.

The court also ruled that cases in which some ballot boxes were opened early did not affect the results because they were done transparently. The overarching sense from the court was that the Prabowo team failed to provide compelling evidence that any irregularities that did happen, as always occur to some degree in any election, had unfairly benefited Jokowi.

The court's decision cannot be appealed. Do you think Prabowo may continue to dispute the results and potentially urge his followers to take to the streets?

It is possible, but seems unlikely given the statements we have heard from his team. More importantly, Prabowo must realize that he does not command enough support to do more than be a nuisance on the streets. We saw demonstrators numbering in the low thousands on the streets of Jakarta today. Meanwhile, Prabowo's coalition is splintering as parties look to switch their allegiance to Jokowi, and polling in the aftermath of the election showed that the vast majority of Indonesians just want Prabowo to accept the results so the country can move on.

The case had been seen as a major test for the Constitutional Court after the former chief justice was jailed for life in June for accepting bribes over local election disputes. Do you think this verdict will help repair the court's reputation?

I am not sure that a single ruling will help repair the court's damaged reputation. For one thing, legal experts seemed fairly unanimous in their position that it would have been nearly unthinkable for the court to rule in Prabowo's favor, so there is no real surprise in today's result. I think this was a case in which the court could only hurt or maintain its reputation, not improve it. Obviously, it would have been enormously damaging had the judges gone the other way, and it could still be damaging to the court’s reputation if Prabowo rejects the results.

Did Prabowo's dispute of the election results have a polarizing effect among Indonesians?

The period between the election and today's ruling appears to have further polarized Prabowo's most ardent supporters. But polling has made clear that for most Indonesians, the election ended on Election Day and they just want to move on.

What impact has the uncertainty over the election results had on the economy?

For the most part, the markets seemed confident that Jokowi had won convincingly on Election Day. Their rebound was not as robust as it would have been had Prabowo not challenged the results, but there was little sense that investors and traders were really afraid the court would overturn the results. Today's ruling was followed by a modest bounce in the Jakarta stock market, indicating that the markets had for the most part already factored in a Prabowo loss.

Regarding specific policies like the fuel subsidies, I have seen no indication that Jokowi or his team have been hedging out of fear that the results of the election might be overturned. They have continued to lay out their governing vision, including on economic decisions like the need to roll back fuel subsidies, as if they were certain of victory.

How might this decision affect Prabowo's seven-party alliance in parliament?

It is hard to imagine that the coalition will long outlive today's decision. Several parties, especially Golkar and PPP, have already made their desire to jump ship clear. Now that the door is firmly shut on Prabowo's presidential bid, the coalition will splinter, regardless of any agreement party leaders might have made to maintain it in opposition.

What role do you see Prabowo playing in the future?

Prabowo's best political option is to focus on leading his party in opposition from behind the scenes, much as Megawati Sukarnoputri has done for PDI-P. How much interest he really has in day-to-day governance, especially in the legislature, is questionable. It is likely he will choose to focus on intra-party politics and use of the bully pulpit, while leaving the actual running of Gerindra's parliamentary contingent, and any coalition members it can retain, to others in the party leadership.

Gregory Poling is a fellow with the Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies at the Washington-based Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS).