Jokowi wins poll

From a furniture seller on the island of Java to Indonesia's next leader: 53-year-old Joko Widodo, known by his nickname Jokowi (main picture), has won Indonesia's presidential election. Amid tight security in the capital Jakarta, the country's Election Commission announced on Tuesday, July 22, that Jokowi won around 53 percent of the nearly 133 million valid ballots cast. His rival, ex-general Prabowo Subianto - who was on his third bid for the presidency - won 62.5 million votes, or some 47 percent, according to the final results. Voter turnout was 70.7 percent.

Jokowi is seen as likely to usher in an era of democratic reforms and a different leadership style, especially in relation to a slowing economy and the country's worsening human rights record.

Jakarta-based political analyst Paul Rowland told DW that Jokowi represents a generational change for the Southeast Asian country as he will be the first genuine president who is not linked to the era of the former dictator Suharto. "He has a track record of taking on red tape and improving services as well as providing free health care and education at the local level. He has pledged to take those initiatives national but will face a tough challenge," the analyst added.

The commission's announcement confirms "quick count" results released just a few hours after polling stations closed on July 9, which declared Jokowi the winner. The unofficial tallies have been accurate in predicting the outcome of previous elections.

A contested result

But Jokowi's rival ex-general Prabowo has refused to accept defeat, insisting his opponent cheated. Just before the official results were released, the 62-year-old accused Jokowi's team of "massive, structured and systematic fraud" and announced he was withdrawing from the process, after asking the election commission to postpone the release of the results, a request which was swiftly rejected.

But, as Rowland argues, the problem Prabowo faces is that so far nobody has put forward any credible evidence of systematic fraud: "There were certainly irregularities but not of the nature that would change the result of the election."

Nevertheless, according to media reports, Prabowo's campaign has enlisted some 2,000 lawyers and paralegals to challenge the election result in the Constitutional Court, which could drag the process into August. "Prabowo will likely file appeals after the official results are released that could keep the drama going until late August," said Gregory Poling, Southeast Asia expert at the Washington-based Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS).

In the end, though, the ex-general will be under enormous pressure to accept defeat, no matter how painful that might be for him, the analyst told DW. Even President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono hinted a day before the announcement of the results that the ex-general should accept if he loses, saying: "Conceding defeat is noble."

The corruption issue

The Constitutional Court's reputation, however, was undermined last month after its former chief judge Akil Mochtar was sentenced to life in prison after being found guilty of accepting over 5 million USD in bribes to influence rulings in connection to local election disputes.

Indonesia is not only the world's most populous Muslim country, but also the third-largest democracy, with some 190 million voters eligible to cast their ballots. Many analysts regard the Southeast Asian nation's democratic accomplishments after the overthrow of strongman Suharto as remarkable. But there has also been growing frustration in recent years over a slowing economy, growing Islamic radicalism, poverty and rampant graft.

"Corruption was a big focus of the campaign, with both candidates vowing to clean up the system. This is clearly a motivating issue, especially for young Indonesians who voted for the first time and were fed up with the previous administration's slow progress on its promises to fight graft," said Poling. However, the analyst is convinced that for the majority of voters, "bread and butter issues surrounding the economy and access to social services" were decisive.

A closely fought race

Jokowi was long the favorite to win the presidential race, but Prabowo - the ex-general-turned businessman who was once married to Suharto's daughter - turned out to be a tough contender. Just a few weeks before the vote, opinion polls suggested that Jokowi, the candidate of the opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-Perjuangan), was in the lead.

However, Prabowo's team managed to narrow the lead by gaining the support of other large parties and launching an expensive and aggressive campaign, suggesting, among other things, that Jokowi was a communist. Jokowi has denied the claims.

Despite Prabowo's insistence he has won, his seven-party coalition is reportedly divided over how to deal with the results. The ex-general's Merah-Putih coalition would have the majority in the next parliament, but only if it holds. And according to Donald K. Emmerson, head of the Southeast Asia Forum at Stanford University, opposition to Prabowo's refusal to accept defeat has been mounting.

The challenges ahead

The analyst explains that the largest party in Prabowo's camp as of now is Golkar. But some in Golkar have proposed that the party switch sides and join what is set to be Jokowi's ruling coalition. "If Golkar as an organization were to switch sides, or if a large enough number of individual Golkar legislators were to defect to Jokowi, he could gain the legislative majority that he now lacks," noted Emmerson. However, he added: Jokowi has said that, as president, he would welcome support from Golkar, but not in return for guarantees of cabinet and other high posts in his administration.

Jokowi will face major challenges as Indonesia's next president, ranging from fighting corruption to revitalizing the economy. "The new president will immediately face the troubles of managing a coalition, which will start with the appointment of his cabinet. This was always a thorn in the side of Yudhoyono, who had to deal with an unwieldy and often sabotaging coalition," said Poling.

In terms of the economy, Jokowi promised market-friendly policies to revive growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy, but also favored an agenda focused on protecting local resources and firms, leading to concerns among foreign investors.

Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist at the analytics firm IHS, told DW the future president will have to decide on whether to pursue a strategy of globalization and greater international integration or a more nationalist, protectionist policies that could derail Indonesia's economic growth momentum.

What's at stake?

Analysts agree the outcome of the election will be critical for the political future of the world's fourth most populous country. According to Poling, this election heralds the consolidation of democracy in Indonesia. "Outgoing President Yudhoyono served for a decade as the first democratically elected president in post-Suharto Indonesia. Jokowi now stands poised to take over from him in the nation's first peaceful transfer of power between one directly elected leader and another. That is a remarkable step."

Rowland believes Indonesia's democracy is strong enough to withstand the challenges that may come forward in courts or on the streets. "Indonesians now know who has won the election and will quickly move on."

As for the steps ahead, Emmerson is of the view: "The priorities for Indonesians now are to create a mandate, avoid a deadlock, and thus to empower a clean, effective, and reform-focused administration." The inauguration of the next president is set for October.