March on Islamabad

Pakistan's power struggle has all the ingredients of a classic drama: two peoples' tribunes, one a former athlete and man-about-town, now reformed and on the straight and narrow, the other a religious leader, down to earth, straightforward, but not an extremist, are both marching towards the capital city, accompanied by a growing number of followers, to topple a controversial ruler from power. The show being put on by ex-cricket star Imran Khan, Islamic cleric Tahir-ul-Qadri, and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was always the stuff of epics – what the bards once sang around the campfire is being played out today as a visually stunning TV story around the world.

The two protagonists - Khan and Qadri - are aware of the power of image and are basking in their popularity. But they overestimate their influence: the classic plot would not be complete without higher powers secretly pulling strings, deciding when heroes should rise and fall. In Pakistan, these powers wear khaki and shoulder pieces.

The military feels provoked

For the generals, the "March on Islamabad" comes at the right moment. Nawaz Sharif's politics have been a thorn in their side for a long time. Firstly, Sharif puts former head of state and of the military, General Pervez Musharraf, on trial for high treason. And as if that was not already cowardly enough, Sharif joined hands with the arch enemy, India, for all the world to see, when he met with the new Prime Minister of the neighbouring country, Narendra Modi, at Modi's inauguration. Such gestures of reconciliation rub the Pakistani military violently the wrong way.

The eternal enmity with its neighbor is part of Pakistan's founding myth since British India split into the two states in 1947 – and without this, the over proportional role of the military would be difficult to justify. But the military sees itself not just as a protective barrier for the subcontinent's Muslims against the Indian Hindu superior power. It is also still the biggest employer in the country. It runs hospitals, businesses and schools, army families live in so-called military cantonments, enclosed residential areas which offer a standard of living otherwise only enjoyed by the elite. Many urban middle class families have at least an uncle or an aunt working for the military.

Lost potential

These old structures may be comfortable for those who benefit from them, but they do not move Pakistan on in the globalized world. Because in the same urban families, obligatorily related to at least one ex officer, a well educated generation is growing up, young people with academic credentials - often achieved abroad. They are the potential basis for a civil economy, for change through trade in the region – but without reconciliation with the Indian giant, this vision has no real future.

Many in Pakistan see Nawaz Sharif as corrupt and inefficient, however he does send the right signals in the direction of the country's neighbor. Regrettably, the young people feel more of a connection with the charismatic Imran Khan, who runs the risk of ending up as a military puppet along with Qadri. If the two get tangled up in a possibly violent power struggle with the present government, the military could emerge as the self-appointed last peace-keeping power and revolt again, as so often in Pakistan's history.

Change of tack towards India

But it is unlikely to go that far. Nawaz Sharif will give into the military and revise his policy regarding India, even if he withstands the mass protests put on by Qadri and Khan. Sharif will think back to his first term in office, which ended abruptly in 1999 when the generals seized power after he had once already stretched out his hand to India. It is almost unimaginable, that he is now risking a repeat of the event. India's Modi is also making life difficult for Sharif. After some skirmishes in Kashmir, an area disputed by both countries, Modi accused Pakistan of waging a proxy war with irregular forces – a move which does not lend itself to reconciliation.

Whether these skirmishes were orchestrated by the Pakistani military or were just a convenient coincidence for them no longer matters – just as it does not matter who gains the upper hand in the march on Islamabad. In every possible scenario, the military will profit. And yet again Pakistan is missing out on the chance of becoming a regional economic power. Everything remains just as in the classic drama: as long as the military retain their power, why should they bother about the needs of the mere mortals?