The march on Islamabad

For his critics and a number of opposition parties in Pakistan, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is an embodiment of corruption and incompetence. They vow to bring down his one-year-old government through mass protests on the country's Independence Day on Thursday, August 14. Cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan and Pakistani-Canadian cleric Tahir-ul-Qadri are spearheading this anti-government movement, which some political observers say has the backing of Pakistan's ubiquitous military.

The military is wary of Sharif's cordial moves towards the country's regional arch-rival India. The PM and the army are also not on the same page over the Islamic republic's Afghanistan policy, and more so on the future of the detained former military chief and ex-president, Pervez Musharraf.

The military has also been under fire from liberal activists and journalists over human rights violations in the western Balochistan and the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces. Analysts say the generals feel these activists are being encouraged by Sharif who wants to rein in the army. A "revolution" against the elected civilian government is hence unfolding, they say.

At least six people were killed over the weekend when Qadri's Tehreek-e-Minjahul Quran activists clashed with the police in the eastern city of Lahore - a political stronghold of PM Sharif and his brother, Shahbaz Sharif, who is the provincial chief minister. The authorities charged Qadri with murder after a policeman, who was wounded in the Lahore clashes, died of his injuries on Saturday, August 9.

"Stay here until the revolution. This revolution heralds change. We want the rule of law in the country," the firebrand cleric told his supporters. Qadri - who has a vast network of religious schools across the country - said on Sunday that he would join hands with Khan, who is also aiming to topple the government.

"Our march will begin on August 14. We (Khan and Qadri) would work together and would end the kingdom of cruelty," he said.

The cleric, who flew to Pakistan from Canada in June, also staged an unsuccessful revolt against former President Asif Ali Zardari's government in January 2013.

Things could be more serious this time, however. Observers expect hundreds of thousands of people on the streets of Islamabad on August 13 or the morning of August 14 defying the government's ban on mass congregations in the capital.

DW correspondent in Islamabad, Shakoor Rahim, says thousands of paramilitary troops and policemen have been deployed to guard the city's entrance points, and the PM's residence and parliament building have been barricaded ahead of the march.

Dissatisfaction with the government

Experts say that many Pakistanis - frustrated with lawlessness, unemployment, frequent power outages and inflation in the country - are hoping for change. Qadri and Khan, they say, are using the situation to their advantage.

Islamabad-based security and political analyst Hasan Askari Rizvi says Sharif's popularity is waning, adding that it won't be easy for the government to crush Qadri's movement. "The center of these anti-government protests is in the Punjab province, which is considered to be Sharif's bastion. It should be a worrying fact for the government that the movement is unfolding in their stronghold," Rizvi told DW.

Army's alleged support

The anti-government protests are getting bigger and stronger but quite a lot of people in Pakistan feel Sharif has the right to complete his five-year tenure.

Sharif won a landslide victory in May 2013 parliamentary elections. But Imran Khan, whose Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party governs the restive Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, says the vote was massively rigged in Sharif's favor.

Saad Rafiq, a leader of the PM's Muslim League party, criticized the "unconstitutional" way with which the Premier's authority is being challenged and undermined. "To ask an elected government to resign is not in accordance to the constitution," he said.

Rafiq's view is shared by supporters of the Muslim League. "Every Tom, Dick, and Harry can say they want to march on Islamabad and besiege it because the government is corrupt. This shouldn't be the way," Aamir Ahmed, a Lahore-based entrepreneur, told DW.

But Qadri and Khan are considered to be mature political players. And some experts see they are being supported by the army generals.

"Most people in Pakistan think Qadri is being backed by the establishment, particularly the army," Ghazi Salahuddin, a senior journalist in Karachi, told DW, adding that the possibility of the military coup in this situation could not be dismissed.

Qadri and Khan deny the claims.

"I am against the army takeover and will oppose it," Qadri said in a DW interview.

Khan also told the media that "the imposition of Martial Law is not the solution to the country's problems."

The military's top leadership met on Monday, August 11, to discuss the security issues in relation to the anti-government protests. Critics say the timing of this meeting is indicative of the fact that the generals are keeping a close watch on the situation.

Can the government be toppled?

"It all depends on how the government in the Punjab province handles Qadri and Khan on August 14," Mansoor Raza, a Karachi-based activist and political researcher, told DW.

"There could be two likely outcomes of the Thursday march: 1) The army might take the center stage again; and 2) There will be more accommodation of right-wing politicians in Pakistan," Raza added.

But Saira Abbas, a PTI activist, believes it won't be easy to force Sharif to step down. However, "if there is bloodshed during the march, other political parties might join the anti-government rallies," she told DW, adding that it would be the end of Sharif's rule.

Sharif's supporters say the country is facing enormous challenges ranging from an economic crisis to a protracted Islamist insurgency, and that it is certainly not prudent on the part of Qadri and Khan to destabilize the government at this stage.