Treading water

With the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol due to expire next year, the clock is ticking to reach a deal on something better to replace it.

Don't hold your breath waiting for that to happen in Durban.

South Africa is hosting the 2011 United Nations Climate Summit at a time when there is plenty at stake.

Negotiators are looking for a successor to the Kyoto Protocol. It has its limitations – it doesn't cover the world's top two emitters, but it remains the only international treaty to date to set binding limits on greenhouse gas emissions.

The talks will also focus on reaching agreement over how to help developing countries fund climate protection efforts.

Deforestation is another item on the agenda: delegates are looking to adopt a common policy on reversing destruction of rainforests, which serve as huge carbon sinks.

Taking action on past pledges

In 2009, leaders agreed to the Copenhagen Accord, which calls for a rise in global temperatures to be limited to 2 degrees Celsius.

Parties also found common ground on providing financial and technological support for developing countries, as well as the need to develop compensation schemes for environmental protection projects, such as forest conservation.

Now, the focus is on finding ways to turn those plans into action. That will include a concrete cost-benefit analysis, something that is sure to put the spotlight on member states' disagreements over funding.

An uncertain future

As the window of opportunity tightens, mankind is slowly but surely approaching a point of no-return when it comes to keeping climate change below 2 degrees of warming, but that's just one of the challenges the world faces.

Fossil fuels and raw materials are becoming scarcer (and more expensive) and biodiversity is under threat. We are gradually chipping away at the resources vital for our survival, from fresh water to food to energy.

No matter how many declarations of intent the international community adopts, and no matter how much money we throw at the problems, the only way to tackle diminishing resources and climate change is through a complete transformation of the global economy.

This ambition will take center stage at the Rio+20 conference on sustainable development next year in June, when the international community will look for ways to guide the world into the post-fossil-fuel era.

Failure to find a compromise on climate issues in Durban will set an unfortunate tone for Rio.

Author: Helle Jeppesen (arp)
Editor: Nathan Witkop