Durban's prospects

The world may lose its only legally binding treaty to reduce greenhouse gas emissions – the Kyoto Protocol – when delegates gather this month in South Africa to continue talks on climate change.

Observers view negotiations on Kyoto as one the key "pillars" of a successful outcome in Durban.

"We need a second commitment period," said Shane Tomlinson of the environmental think tank E3G in a briefing ahead of the talks.

"If we lose Kyoto, we'll be stuck with a bottom-up pledge-and-review system. The Kyoto Protocol is the only legally binding mechanism on the table,"

Kyoto's first commitment period is due to expire next year amid strong disagreement over whether to continue with a treaty that only covers countries responsible for a diminishing proportion of humans' carbon emissions.

"A second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol with the EU and other ambitious developed economies would cover only 15 percent of the global emissions," said European Union climate chief Connie Hedegaard in a statement following preparations in South Africa last month.

"This is clearly not good enough. We need commitments also from the other big emitters."

Expect 'tough' talks

The protocol, adopted in 1997 in the Japanese city from which it takes its name, aims to reduce emissions among certain wealthy nations by an average of about 5 percent on 1990 levels.

China and the United States are not covered by these obligations and between them are responsible for around 40 percent of the world's emissions.

Countries including Japan, Canada and Russia refuse to recommit to a further round of Kyoto without similar rules for the world's two biggest emitters.

Developing countries, including host South Africa, are strong supporters of maintaining Kyoto's principles of "common but differentiated" responsibilities for rich and poor countries.

South African Foreign Minister Maite Nkoana-Mashabane told reporters last month she expected talks on Kyoto to be "tough."

"We no longer have time to postpone the key issue, particularly of the second commitment period" of Kyoto, she said. "It has to be discussed in Durban."

Few expect the Durban conference, which runs from November 28 to December 9, to agree upon anything more than a makeshift solution.

UN climate chief Christiane Figueres has conceded that time has "run out."

"Even if they were able to agree on a legal text ... that requires an amendment to the Kyoto Protocol. It requires legislative ratifications on the part of three-quarters of the parties, so we would assume that there's no time to do that between Durban and the end of 2012," Figueres said earlier this year.

NGOs maintain pressure

Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are lobbying for an ambitious outcome, despite few signs of a breakthrough.

"The time has come for developed world leaders and their partners in the developing world to actually take climate change seriously and start overcoming…the political obstacles that have hindered the past negotiations," Mohamed Adow of Christian Aid in Kenya told Deutsche Welle. "We don't have an option B."

Though industrialized nations have historically contributed the most greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere, Sven Harmeling of the NGO Germanwatch says developing countries will soon have to commit to action themselves.

"We have to accept that we live in a different world to that of 15 years ago when Kyoto was adopted," Sven Harmeling said.

"Emerging economies are now the countries with the highest levels of emissions growth, and developing countries will also be responsible for the majority of emissions in the near future."

With pressure mounting to find an agreement that brings all parties on board, Harmeling says there is a real danger of drifting into a set of voluntary measures.

"A central component of the Kyoto Protocol was that industrialized countries were committed to certain legally binding targets, and that they were monitored and had to file regular reports," he said.

NGOs would widely regard a voluntary regime – even with tougher pledges – as a step backwards.

Reporter: Johannes Beck, Nathan Witkop
Editor: John Blau