Hopelessness in Bulgaria

The Bulgarians are the EU frontrunners by a number of disheartening metrics: Bulgaria is the poorest EU member state with the lowest GDP, it has the highest perceived corruption and, according to a Gallup poll from 2012, it is home to the unhappiest population in Europe. Currently, there are hardly any signs that the situation could soon improve, says economist Georgi Angelov.

"The political crisis has lasted for almost two years now and is ongoing. It has been having a negative impact on the economy and on investments," Angelov explains.

The Russian-Ukraine crisis, flooding this past summer, the growing fiscal deficit and the destabilization of the banks are making the situation worse yet.

"The bottom line is: the future government is facing huge challenges," says Angelov.

Difficult starting point

With the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, many Bulgarians are worried about a cold winter - Bulgaria is nearly 100-percent dependent upon Russian gas. Some observers expect to see street demonstrations soon. The latest poll shows that 70 percent of the population is skeptical regarding the new government and that half of Bulgarians do not expect to see things improve.

Economist Krassen Stantchev shares their doubts: "I expect to see the economic and fiscal policies deteriorate further because we have heard many populist promises during the election campaign."

Political scientist Georgi Ganev, however, is a little more optimistic. He says that expecting a complete turnaround from these elections would be a bit much, but adds, "If we were to get a stable government with clearly defined structures, that could be a reassuring factor for the currently turbulent economic climate."

Populistic campaigns

Going by the parties' campaign promises, it is very difficult to tell which policies will be implemented after the election. Political scientist Daniel Smilov believes that the parties' platforms in Bulgaria are nothing but an election accessory - taken seriously neither by politicians nor voters.

"At the same time, especially the nationalist candidates keep topping each other with new fantastical ideas about the centralization of power companies or measures for the instant creation of two million jobs," Smilov explains.

Cheaper energy, improved taxation policies and affordable medical care - these are some of the most popular topics picked out by the populists. The problem, though, is that there is hardly any leeway for all this, experts warn. Because energy prices in Bulgaria are already lower than anywhere in the EU, the "flat rate tax" of 10 percent can hardly be pushed any lower, and a redistribution of taxes might well choke the economy. In the field of medicine, there is a huge amount of corruption and not enough money. The poor patients in particular bear the brunt of the system's malfunctions.

Corruption eating away at society

Professor of politics Evgenii Dainov believes corruption in Bulgaria poses a great threat to the state, saying, "The only solution is to rebuild state institutions which are currently being held captive by private interests."

According to judicial expert Tihomir Bezlov, more money is being paid in bribes to officials than at any time since 2000. His colleague Todor Yalamov claims that corruption in the public sector has doubled since 2009.

Oligarchic structures have eroded many Bulgarians' trust in the country's institutions. "Bulgaria must decide whether it will remain an oligarchy based on the Russian model, or will it become European?" says Dainov, who, despite everything, sees reasons for hope. "The mass protests against the oligarchy have been effective in the past," he notes.

Justice system overloaded

A further central problem is the country's high rate of crime. After joining the EU in the year 2007, crime rates initially started falling.

Todor Yalamov believes that development can be explained due to organized crime and also small-time criminals heading west after Bulgaria joined the Union. But in the last few years, the trend has begun to regress. This, Yalamov argues, is due to the euro zone crisis and also to improvements in crime fighting in other EU countries.

Relatedly, the judicial and police systems show signs of corruption, he says: "Bulgaria is number one in terms of the police-to-civilians ratio. But on the streets, you hardly ever see police. The administration for this is far too bloated."

For a time, EU control mechanisms put some pressure on the government to at least take some steps towards reforming the judicial system. But these measures are no longer effective, according to Yalamov: "After joining the EU, these mechanisms lost meaning. Bulgarian politicians discovered that criticism from Brussels had no practical effect. Here and there, the flow of some EU money was stopped. But nothing else happened."

Only the EU can help

Generally, a feeling of hopelessness is overshadowing the elections. The last opinion polls indicate a win for the center-right party GERB of former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov.

A coalition government with the small right-liberal reform bloc is expected. The current government parties - the socialist BSP and the DPS, a party associated with the Turkish-speaking minority - are expected to end up among the opposition.