Fears of the Russian bear
September 10, 2014As many troops as possible, stationed as close as can be to the Russian border - and that ASAP: this is pretty much what Poland wants from its allies in the North-Atlantic Treaty Organization when it comes to the current Ukraine crisis.
What's usually a very divisive entity has for months been in complete concord over one thing: All parties in Poland's parliament see Putin's actions in eastern Ukraine as a security threat for Poland.
The traumatic memories of the Soviet Occupation are perhaps coming back. To be fair, Germany of course also contributed its share of horror during the Second World War, but at the moment, the Polish press sees a new era of confrontation emerging. For some observers, the past quarter century - 25 years since Poland's first free elections - is already gone: "They were the best years in the past few centuries. Now it's over," wrote Adam Michnik, Editor-in-Chief of Poland's largest daily Gazeta Wyborcza.
Fear (of Russia) and disappointment (with Germany)
Another point of agreement throughout Poland's political landscape concerns Germany's stance on the Ukraine crisis, in particular, its cautious politics with regard to Moscow: "If push came to shove, Germany wouldn't protect Poland from Russia," wrote Bartosz Wielinski, a highly respected Polish columnist, in the Gazeta Wyborcza.
This critical stance remains, even after the recent NATO summit in Wales: Warsaw sees Germany's holding to the NATO-Russia "Founding Act" as a mistake. The country, write some observers, feels more secure following the summit; but the fate of Ukraine was also due to the inability of the West - hindered most by Germany - to stand by Kyiv both militarily and economically.
"The worst-case-scenario would be for Ukraine to fall apart, for Europe to become helpless and for Putin to stay his course," warned Adam Michnik. His prognosis: "First it will be Moldova. After that we will hear about the horrible persecution of Russians in Estonia and Latvia, and about how they must be helped."
Nuclear weapons on NATO's eastern border
Romania, for one, is concerned about the Ukraine crisis spilling over into Moldova, due to the frozen conflict in the separatist region of Transnistria. Recent statements emanating from the Russian foreign ministry have raised alarm in Bucharest. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said that an eye must be kept on Russian-speaking areas currently undergoing problems similar to those in Ukraine. In concrete terms, Lavrov mentioned ethnic minorities in Romania, Hungary, Poland and western Ukraine.
According to Romanian President Traian Basescu, there is, "rationally speaking," no direct danger for his country. However, he said one must be prepared for the "irrational." In the face of the escalating crisis in eastern Ukraine, he has called on the EU and NATO to arm Ukrainian forces. The era of "cautious politics and protective helmets must give way to a new politics of strength," if one wants to stop Russia. "Today it's Ukraine, tomorrow it will be somebody else," Basescu said.
Former Bulgarian foreign minister Solomon Passy has concrete ideas for the kind of weapons needed. In an interview with DW, he reiterated his demand for NATO to store its nuclear weapons on the military alliance's eastern border. "As a deterrent, atomic weapons prevented a third world war in the 20th century. And this would be a politically balanced solution that would contribute to stabilization," Passy said, adding that this step was necessitated by "Putin's Ukraine invasion."
Hope for NATO
In contrast to the former Bulgarian foreign minister, Romania's president Basescu has more conservative weapons in mind. At the NATO summit in Newport, he - like his Polish and Baltic counterparts - called for a NATO base in his country. He also expressed intentions to contribute to the military alliance's program for cyber defense in Ukraine.
On the day before the Newport summit, Bucharest's highest defense council had approved plans for the stationing of NATO fighter jets, planes that would be used in NATO's integrated defense system. With regard to naval concerns, Romania has also called for closer cooperation among NATO member states. The reason for this, said Bucharest, concerns the stronger Russian presence in the Black Sea.