Young Germans fear war and poverty yet remain optimistic

Ongoing wars, the ever-more dramatic impact of climate change and growing political polarization are just some of the concerns on the minds of young people in Germany today, a new study says. Titled "Pragmatism Between Disillusionment and Embracing Diversity," the Shell Youth Study 2024 surveyed 2,509 adolescents aged 12 to 25 about politics, society and the environment. The authors of the study, which is conducted every five years, say it paints a "nuanced profile" of a generation, which sees "both problems and the need for action." 

While the study found that many young people are receptive to populist positions, there is no sign that they are disengaging from democracy and wider society. In fact, the majority are optimistic about the future and the prospects offered to them by the state and society. "This is one of the most interesting and also one of the most puzzling and least expected results," says Mathias Albert, a political scientist at the University of Bielefeld and one of the authors of the study. 

Trust in state institutions, the political system and democracy are still high, despite criticism of the lack of solutions being offered by politics, anxieties about war and the economy. The most plausible explanation for this, according to Albert, is that today's younger generation has experienced the tremendous crisis of the COVID-19 pandemic, but also how democratic society managed to get through it: "Most of them, in their most formative years, experienced that a major crisis was tackled, for better or worse, by society, and I think they draw a lot of optimism from that." 

The study shows that among 15 to 25-year-olds interest in politics has risen significantly as part of a long-term trend over the last two decades: 55% of those surveyed described themselves as being interested in politics, up from a historic low of just over 34% in 2002. For the first time ever, the gender gap has also closed, with just as many girls and young women taking an interest in politics as their male counterparts. The willingness of all young people to get actively involved in politics has grown from 22% in 2002 to 37% in 2024, something the authors say is not simply a short-term effect of the so-called "Generation Greta."

Fear of war in Europe and poverty top concerns

Against the backdrop of Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine, fear of war in Europe topped the list of young people's concerns in Germany with 81% of those surveyed citing this as a possibility — a huge jump from 46% in 2019. Some 67% said they fear poverty, up from 52% in 2019. However, the study also shows that fewer and fewer young people are afraid of being unemployed or not finding an apprenticeship — around one-third (35%) mentioned this as a concern, the lowest since the Shell Youth Study began publishing data in 1953.

Climate change (63%) and environmental pollution (64%) remain prominent concerns for the majority of young people, although considerably fewer are concerned about environmental pollution now than in 2019 (71%). A similar number of young people are concerned about growing hostility among people, at 64%, up from 56% in 2019 almost as many worry about xenophobia (58%), which was mentioned much more frequently than the fear of further immigration (34%) to Germany. 

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 and Israel's subsequent military response in Gaza have changed young people's views on certain issues, say the authors of the study. Currently, 69% of young people aged between 15 and 25 are in favor of a strong NATO, while just 6% are against it. The study's authors also found hardly any differences in opinion on this topic between young people in the former East Germany and those in the West. 

"Young people have realized that world politics is not somewhere out there, it cannot be avoided any longer," explains Albert. "Even if you are not very politically interested, the moment a Ukrainian refugee or refugee from elsewhere turns up in your classroom, you have to think about this."

Among 15 to 25-year-olds, 60% agree with the statement "Russia attacked Ukraine and must be punished for it," while only 13% overall (21% in the East) view this explicitly differently. However, condemnation of Russia does not go hand-in-hand with unreserved military support for Ukraine: 50% want Germany to support Ukraine militarily (44% in the East and 52% in the West). In contrast, 24% reject military support for Ukraine (22% in the West and 34% in the East).

Israel and Gaza conflict controversial topics

Young people aged 15 to 25 are more divided in their assessment of Israel's military response to Hamas's attack on October 7, 2023. Just under a third of young people (30%) welcome Germany's decision to side with Israel — but just as many reject this and around 27% remain undecided. Of those surveyed, 52% said they want Germany to more clearly recognize the suffering of the Palestinian population in Gaza — only 11% take a different view, and 26% remain undecided. 

Around a third of young people (32%) emphasize Germany's special obligation towards Israel. However, just as many take a different view and explicitly disagree, and about the same proportion remain undecided.

There are also big differences of opinion on this issue between young people who either themselves or whose parents immigrated to Germany from an Arab country or Turkey and those who did not. About one quarter (26%) of those with a migration background from an Arab country or Turkey agree that Germany has a special obligation towards Israel but 42% explicitly reject this. 

Edited by: Rina Goldenberg

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