Why it's time to take Trump seriously

Deriding Trump as a clown as the media has done or as a "huckster billionaire whose political ideas are gibberish," as his fellow Republican presidential candidate Lindsay Graham did, is understandable; in Graham's personal case, because Trump had blared out the Senator's mobile phone number on live TV and called him an "idiot."

But more generally, because Trump's incessant outrageous rants against immigrants, women, war heroes or anyone or anything else he happens to disagree with has seriously put in doubt his electability and qualification to be president.

Add to his outlandish behavior the fact that he has never held an elected office, that he previously toyed with running for president before but, ultimately, never did and that the first Republican primary is still months away and the reluctance to take him or his candidacy serious is not just understandable, but explainable.

But it still is wrong to dismiss him as a joke.

First, because this time, say experts, Trump is serious about his campaign.

"To pursue his presidential bid, Trump has already sacrificed some significant business relationships, including his hit television program," said Barry Burden, who heads the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. "He should be taken as a genuine candidate who is competing to win. It is an unconventional campaign but it is real."

Trump is serious

Jeffrey Berry, a political scientist at Tufts University, said Trump has always been serious: "He truly believes he will be a great president."

Secondly, Trump's personal wealth makes him - unlike all other Republican or Democratic candidates - entirely independent from outside donors to finance his campaign. Whether he continues to ride high in the polls or not, the only one who decides the fate of his run is Trump himself.

His financial independence also makes him an attractive candidate for many voters disillusioned with the increasing influence of corporations or other interests in the election process.

And thirdly, with Trump, anti-immigrant rhetoric moved from the fringe of the Republican Party to its mainstream. The fact that the GOP's most centrist contender, Jeb Bush – who is married to a Mexican-born wife, himself speaks Spanish and is a long-time proponent of comprehensive immigration reform – felt compelled to use the term "anchor baby" to refer to children born to illegal immigrants in the US shows how Trump shifted the goal posts of what is deemed acceptable speech by Republican presidential candidates to the right.

"He's already pushed the GOP into a demographic corner," said veteran Democratic strategist Bob Shrum who contends that Trump's anti-immigrant rhetoric has only exacerbated the Republican Party's traditional problems to appeal to Hispanic voters.

More than that, Trump's curious medley of undisguised populism, rabid anti-intellectualism and crude language has allowed him to tap into the segment of disenfranchised, mostly white, male voters like no other mainstream candidate has done or dared to. "Pundits got this wrong because they missed the dark mood of a tea-sodden GOP electorate", said Shrum, who advised Democratic hopefuls Al Gore and John Kerry on their presidential campaigns.

Different standards

None of this means that Trump will win the Republican nomination, let alone become president. "The campaign will take on a different dynamic as the field gets winnowed to Trump and few other more conventional candidates", said Burden. "At that point he will get pressed on issues and his background in a more serious way that could nudge him out of the race."

But even if his star should begin to fade eventually, Trump already has had a bigger impact on the political discourse in the US than any other Republican candidate.

What's more, Trump might even decide to run as an independent candidate should he fail to clinch the Republican nomination - despite his vow not to do so, said Shrum: "Pledge or no pledge, if spurned in the primaries, an independent Trump can break the elephant 's back."