Who's who in the Prigozhin-Kremlin conflict?

Yevgeny Prigozhin

The head of the independent paramilitary Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin was previously considered one of Russian President Vladimir Putin's closest confidants. The Wagner Group has been instrumental in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, particularly in and around Bakhmut, not to mention in conflicts in Syria and across the African continent in recent years.

But the close ties between Prigozhin and the Kremlin leadership has suffered in recent months: The Wagner chief has long been in favor of installing a new Russian military leadership, which he has repeatedly criticized for defeats in Ukraine.

Tensions have been increasing since last Friday, when Prigozhin accused the military leadership, in particular his archenemy, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, of lying to the Russian people about the true reasons for the war in February 2022. He also accused Russian troops of attacking the Wagner Group.

In a televized national address on Saturday, Putin called the Wagner mercenaries "traitors" who would "inevitably be punished" — the final break between the Kremlin and Prigozhin.

After a deal was struck late Saturday, the investigation into Prigozhin by the FSB, Russia's domestic intelligence agency, was called off, provided that the mercenary boss move to Belarus. According to the terms of the deal, Wagner's soldiers also will not face retribution.

Sergei Shoigu

Russia's defense minister since 2012, Sergei Shoigu has been among the main perpetrators of the military aggression against Ukraine since 2014 and, to an even greater extent, since the all-out war began on February 24, 2022. Shoigu stands accused of numerous war crimes.

Nominally, he is Putin's most important man — though there are doubts about how much trust the former Kremlin darling still enjoys. While he could count the occupation of Crimea in 2014 and Russian involvement in Syria as successes, his reputation has declined since the war against Ukraine began. The fact that Putin hoped the invasion would go much differently is considered an open secret.

Shoigu's relationship with Prigozhin is particularly strained. The head of the Wagner mercenary force has repeatedly accused the Defense Ministry of failing to deliver ammunition. Prigozhin has also said that Shoigu is pursuing personal goals and awards, such as a hero's medal, while deceiving Putin about the situation in Ukraine. These accusations culminated recently when Prigozhin said that Shoigu had lied to the Russian people about the real reason for the invasion.

But the failure of Prigozhin's rebellion is likely to strengthen Shoigu's position again. The Russian military is loyal to its defense minister ― there were hardly any defectors that joined the Wagner troops. It remains to be seen in how far this improves Shoigu's currently strained relationship with Putin. For now, Putin is standing by his defense minister.

Valery Gerasimov

Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov took over command of troops in Ukraine from Sergei Surovikin in January 2023. He is also responsible for organizing Russia's military operation in Syria. Having assumed his post in 2012 after Shoigu was named defense minister, he may be considered a confidant of Shoigu, whom he serves as first deputy.

Wagner chief Prigozhin's anger is directed at both Shoigu and Gerasimov, who he accuses of incompetence, holding them primarily responsible for heavy losses during the invasion of Ukraine. On Saturday, after claiming to have captured military facilities in the southern Russian city of Voronezh, Prigozhin threatened to march on Moscow unless Shoigu and Gerasimov joined his cause, and then followed through by moving north. But Prigozhin's demands to dethrone or hand over both men were not successful. For now, Gerasimov is secure in his position.

Sergei Surovikin

Until now, Deputy Chief of General Staff for the Russian Armed Forces Sergei Surovikin was considered to be a Prigozhin ally. The general commanded the Russian forces in Ukraine from October 2022 to January 2023, before being demoted and replaced by Valery Gerasimov. Since the conflict escalated, he has however apparently turned his back on the head of the Wagner Group, calling on Prigozhin in a Friday evening video message to end the power struggle.

The enemy is just "waiting to see the exacerbation of our domestic political situation," Surovikin said, calling for submission to Putin's command.

This article originally appeared in German. It was first published on June 24, 2023, and updated on June 25, 2023.