Western leaders set to upgrade military aid for Ukraine

At their meeting on Thursday, the German and US defense secretaries, Boris Pistorius and Lloyd Austin, discussed continued military aid to Ukraine shortly before the Contact Group meeting on Friday, which will bring together some 50 states supporting Ukraine in the war against Russia.

Friday's meeting, at the US military base in Ramstein, Germany, is expected to finalize a substantial military aid package for the country.

Poland and Finland had each agreed the previous week to give Ukraine about a dozen of their German-made Leopard 2s. As is usually the case in the international arms trade, Germany reserves the right of approval if a recipient country wishes to pass German-made weapons on elsewhere.

German reservations

According to US circles at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is willing to provide Leopard 2 tanks only if the US gives Abrams main battle tanks to Ukraine.

In response to those rumors, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared via videolink from Kyiv: "There are times where we shouldn't hesitate or shouldn't compare. When someone says 'I will give tanks if someone else will also share tanks'.... I don't think this is the right strategy to go with."

The US has Abrams tanks stationed in Europe. However, they are considered very demanding to operate, and while European-made tanks usually run on diesel fuel, the Abrams requires a mix of gasoline, kerosene, and diesel* — which would be logistically difficult for Ukraine to manage, according to some experts.

The Ukrainian army is already accomplishing a logistical feat by reconciling the many completely different military assets of the supporting nations on the front lines in transportation, fuel supply, and repairs.

The German government is under pressure while behind the scenes the diplomatic machine is in high gear.

In Germany, the tug-of-war over the Leopard 2 has been dominating the debate on arms deliveries to Ukraine. The left wing of Olaf Scholz's center-left Social Democrats (SPD) has opposed the delivery of battle tanks for months, while the coalition parties, the Green Party and the neoliberal Free Democrats, are calling for them.

A modern missile from Sweden

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank has been expecting to see Leopard 2 deliveriesto Ukraine for some time.

"There is growing likelihood the Leopard 2 will appear in the Ukrainian inventory, but any impact on the battlefield will depend on the number supplied," the IISS wrote in mid-January. According to the report, a total of 100 Leopard 2s would be needed to give Ukraine a decisive advantage. "While politically notable, the provision of a small number would in effect only be a token gesture."

The new aid package for Ukraine contains other, possibly no less crucial weapons. Among them is a missile that only came onto the arms market last fall. Together with the US company Boeing, the Swedish arms manufacturer Saab has developed an artillery missile that is said to cost only a fraction of similar US surface-to-air bombs.

The Ramstein meeting is also meant to decide whether Ukraine will receive that weapons system, which the Former Commanding General of the USArmy in Europe, Ben Hodges, believes will make life very uncomfortable for the Russian troops in Crimea.

Saab says that its missile, "has a range of 150 km (93 miles), can attack both stationary and moving targets," and can be "ground-launched from a wide variety of launchers and configurations." That apparently means it could be used with the artillery systems the West has given Ukraine already.

Crimea within reach

A range of 150 kilometers means the Ukrainian army could potentially reach targets as far as the center of the Russian-annexed Crimean peninsula. Russian forces have been bombarding Ukraine's civilian infrastructure from their bases in Crimea.

According to a report in The New York Times, US President Joe Biden is said to have abandoned his reluctance to equip Ukraine with penetrating weapons capable of launching a sustained attack on the Crimean peninsula.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman reacted to this report, warning by saying, "This would mean raising the conflict to a new level, which will not be good for European security," according to a Reuters news agency interview with Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

These missiles could also be used by the Ukrainian army to prepare its own offensive into the area south of the major city of Zaporizhzhia and the land bridge to Crimea via the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol, which Russian forces captured in the spring of 2022.

With the arms deliveries from the possible Ramstein package already made public in early January, it is clear that the Ukraine Contact Group has decided to also supply Ukraine with the most modern and possibly decisive Western weapons. This would potentially help Ukraine resist a new attack by Russia and liberate further parts of the country.

This article was originally written in German.

*Correction: An earlier version of this article stated that the Abrams main battle tank requires gasoline as fuel. In fact, the vehicle ideally requires a fuel mixture of gasoline, kerosene, and diesel.

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