Were women key to voting out Poland's ruling conservatives?

"Finally, there's a glimmer of hope for change," said Wanda Kaczor, a 30-year-old resident of Warsaw.

She voted for Poland's New Left party in the October 15 parliamentary election. It wants to form a coalition with the opposition Civic Coalition and the Third Way party, a grouping that could end up commanding a majority of seats in Poland's lower house of parliament and supplant the conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS) government.

Kaczor and many other Polish women hope this new coalition will do more to strengthen women's rights. Among other things, they want to see a liberalized abortion law. Three years ago, the ruling PiS party adopted a highly restrictive abortion law allowing pregnancies to be terminated only in cases of rape or when the woman's life is in danger — changes that triggered major protests across Poland.

"I am Christian, and yet I am in favor of freedom of choice," Kaczor told DW, adding that some see her as an extreme leftist because she took part in the 2020 protests against the PiS abortion law. Kaczor works as an editor for the Catholic Magazyn Kontakt magazine, and has been active in a progressive Catholic intellectual group for years.

Although Kaczor feels strongly connected to the Catholic Church, she supports the right to terminate pregnancies up until the 12th week. "Surely that wouldn't lead to all women suddenly having abortions," she said. "The restrictive [PiS] law does more harm than legalizing abortion."

Abortion remains a controversial subject in Poland

Kinga Jurek, a 20-year-old law student, has a completely different opinion. Jurek, who has been active in the youth organization of Poland's far-right libertarian Confederation party for years, believes abortions rights should remain restrictive.

"The Confederation party focuses on the rights of the individual, so unborn children must also be protected," Jurek told DW. At the same time, she added, men should also have a say. "If a woman wants to have an abortion, the father of the child should also have the right to express his opinion."

But only a minority of Polish women back tight restrictions on abortion rights. According to a poll conducted by investigative news outlet OKO.Press, 75% of Poles support legalizing abortions up to the 12th week of pregnancy.

The restrictive abortion law is one reason why Poland's PiS party lost voters in the October election, said Bartlomiej Biskup, a political analyst at the University of Warsaw. Support for the party dropped from 43.6% in 2019 to 35.4% this year, he said.

"The Left party, which is predominantly backed by women voters, and the Civic Coalition, which has shifted to the left in recent years, have benefited from this," he said.

The Civic Coalition, led by former and likely future Prime Minister Donald Tusk, must "finally do something to avoid betraying its female voters again," said Biskup. "When [the Civic Coalition] was in government from 2007 to 2015, it did nothing to address the abortion issue."

Although the Civic Coalition has promised to make abortions up to the 12th week of pregnancy legal, Biskup doubts it will find enough parliamentary support to make this pledge a reality. One of its coalition partners, the Christian conservative Third Way, would "probably not accept it," he said. This means the Civic Coalition and New Left wouldn't have enough votes to push through the long-anticipated liberalization of the abortion law.

Highest voter turnout since fall of communism

Polish women had grown increasingly disinterested in politics in recent years. This stemmed from the fact that men were calling the shots in politics, making decisions without taking women into consideration.

Moreover, the widespread protests for women's rights appeared to have produced little change, and parties were paying scant attention. Indeed, a few weeks ahead of the election, barely half of Poland's women intended to vote at all.

But numerous appeals and campaigns involving activists and well-known individuals encouraged women to cast their ballots, helping to overcome this political apathy. Ultimately, 74.7% of Polish women and 73.1% of men did end up casting their votes. The overall turnout was 74.4%, the highest since Poland became a democracy after the fall of communism in 1989.

The ruling PiS party, which received 36.1% of the total votes, was actually the most popular party with women voters, with 35.9% casting their ballot for PiS. Women aged 60 and above made up the largest shared of female PiS voters (52.8%), with those aged 18-29 making up the smallest share (14.4%). The Civic Coalition, meanwhile, received 32.5% of the women's vote.

But support for Poland's smaller parties turned out to be decisive, with the New Left and the Third Way particularly benefiting from the support of young women voters.

Coalition partners will aim to present 'united front'

In the new parliament, 136 out of 460 seats will be held by women — a record in Polish politics. That said, the proportion of women in parliament is still only around 30%.

Even though women voters strengthened the left-liberal camp and played a decisive role in defeating PiS, their demands could once again fall by the wayside, said Biskup. He pointed out that the incoming left-liberal-Christian coalition government prioritizes neither women's rights nor social welfare.

Biskup thinks the new government may adopt some uncontroversial policies, such as measures to support parents with disabled children. It may also seek to deliver on Tusk's election promise to help mothers return to the labor market. But for now, he added, Polish politics will remain in campaign mode.

"More divisive issues will arise after the local elections and the European elections in the spring," Biskup said. "Until then, the parties will try to present themselves as a united front."

As time goes by, political differences between the parties — for instance over abortion rights — will become more and more apparent, he added.

This article was originally written in German.