Warm Smiles Belie the Continuing Chill

European leaders were full of warm words for US President George W. Bush this week, but few are under any illusions that the chill which gripped transatlantic ties over Iraq will thaw so easily.

As Bush left for Russia after his fence-mending trip to Europe, an EU arms embargo on China and how to deal with Iran continue to be the biggest clouds on the diplomatic horizon.

EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, who earlier this week warned starkly that "Iraq is not over," was keen to put a more positive spin on events after Bush spent two days in Brussels summitry with his European counterparts. "I think it was a very good visit. We have had time to talk in a relaxed manner about many, many things ... I think the climate has been very good, and the results very good," he told reporters.

But commentators say the reality is far less rosy. "There are any number of issues which could blow up and become a crisis," said Mark Leonard of the London-based Centre for European Reform in an interview with AFP.

Potential crises on the horizon

He cited both Iran and EU plans to end its arms ban on China -- which the US says would upset the military balance between China and Taiwan -- but also discord over the Kyoto climate treaty and the International Criminal Court. "The goodwill will go quite a long way, but it will quite severely tested," he added.

Bush, on his first foreign trip since being sworn in for a second White House term in January, began his charm offensive in Brussels when he urged Europe to put differences aside. "As past debates fade, and great duties become clear, let us begin a new era of transatlantic unity," he said in a keynote speech on Monday.

Charm offensive taken to the door of foes

He even had a kiss-and-make-up dinner with French President Jacques Chirac, his arch foe over the conflict. Then on Tuesday he took his message to NATO and the European Union, both of which were deeply divided over the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq to depose Saddam Hussein. From both he won commitments to help in Iraq, where US forces remain stretched two years after the conflict.

NATO countries all agreed to contribute to an alliance military training mission in Bagdhad, either providing staff or funds, while the EU agreed to train over 70 judical officials and police.

Both the US and Europe also sought to downplay differences over Iran and China at the Brussels talks, with Bush saying the notion that Washington was planning to attack Iran to stop its nuclear plans was "simply ridiculous."

EU commission spokeswoman Francoise Le Bail was also upbeat Wednesday -- but admitted that issues like the China arms embargo will continue to cloud relations. "There is a change of atmopshere definitely in the relations between the EU and the United States," she told reporters, adding, "This opens the way forward."

The same old Bush?

But commentators underlined that the EU and NATO contributions on Iraq are symbolic rather than substantial practical contributions, while highlighting the potential for new clashes.

"Unfortunately this reconciliation ... remained at the level of words. The facts will put it to the test in the coming months," said Caroline Pailhe of the Grip think tank in Brussels.

Chirac also indicated that the jury is out on whether his US counterpart -- who quipped at one point Tuesday that he was "the same old Bush" -- has really changed his strategy towards Europe. "It seems that President Bush clearly indicated that he understood that there was a real partnership, and therefore a real discussion," said Chirac. "That's the feeling I got. The future will tell us whether I'm wrong or not," he added.