War, inflation, flooding: Germans' negative outlook on 2024

A sense of insecurity prevails among Germans who participated in the latest "Deutschlandtrend" opinion poll. In the representative survey of 1,321 eligible voters conducted by pollster Infratest-dimap on January 2 and 3, only half of respondents said they feel confident that 2024 will turn out to be a good year for them.

People's expectations were significantly more negative than at the beginning of last year. One-third they believe that a rather bad year lies ahead, with more extreme weather conditions, continued price hikes, and the arrival of more refugees. Roughly 83% concluded they find the overall situation worrying.

They also see no grounds for optimism regarding international affairs: 73% of respondents believe it is unlikely that the Israel-Hamas warin the Middle East will end this year. They were even more pessimistic about Russia's war on Ukraine: Only 9% said they believe it will end this year, 23 percentage points less than at the start of 2023.

Support for Ukraine

The number of respondents who believe that territorial concessions by Ukraine to Russia are a prerequisite for an end to the war has risen noticeably to 44% within nine months. Nevertheless, a large majority still believes that it is primarily up to Ukraine itself to decide when to enter into negotiations with Russia.

At the end of last year, the European Union decided to start EU accession negotiations with Ukraine. German voter support for such measures is waning. In February 2023, 58% of respondents said they were in favor of working towards EU membership for Ukraine. That number has gone down to 53%. Approval for working towards NATO membership for Ukraine is also declining, with 44% currently in favor, compared to 51% almost a year ago.

The German government has announced that it will provide €8 billion ($8.7 billion) for military aid to Ukraine this year alone. Germany's center-left coalition government of Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) has vowed to support Ukraine "for as long as necessary." The main opposition bloc, the center-right Christian Democrat Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU), agrees.

Voters' positions on Germany's course in Ukraine have remained largely unchanged in recent months. However, opinions differ between voters in the west of the country and the eastern part, the region that was the communist East Germany (GDR) until 1990.

Respondents from the eastern states expressed more skepticism towards German weapons deliveries and financial aid for Ukraine, as well as towards sanctions against Russia. They also feel more strongly that Germany's diplomatic efforts to end the war are insufficient.

Germany's growing budget problems have left their mark: 41% of respondents across the country now consider Germany's financial support for Ukraine to be too extensive, compared to only 21% at the start of the war in early 2022.

Insecurity over US support

Germany is the world's second-largest supporter of Ukraine. The US is by far the biggest. Will it stay that way in 2024? Or will the US withdraw its support following the presidential elections due to be held in November? And what would that mean for the European Union and for Germany?

Eighty percent of those surveyed expressed doubts that any shortfall in US aid to Ukraine could be compensated for by EU states.

However, Chancellor Olaf Scholz believes that Germany has a duty towards Ukraine. Germany must be prepared to do even more "if others weaken," said Scholz at an SPD party conference in December.

Meanwhile, only 19% of the participants in the survey said they were satisfied with the work of Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD). The federal government as a whole fares even worse: Just 17% say they think that it is doing a good job.

The coalition partners have argued a lot over the past year. Now, there is a hole in the budget, and they have to agree on where they want to make savings.

Will they reach an agreement — or will the coalition break apart under the weight of political and ideological differences? Around 49% of those surveyed for the Deutschlandtrend poll believe that the federal government will survive 2024, while 41% think that the government will collapse.

However, the SPD, Greens and FDP probably have little interest in calling new elections: Their approval ratings are so poor that together they only score 32%.

This article was originally written in German.

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