Libyan unrest

Thousands of people attended the funerals of anti-goverment protesters, who were killed in the eastern city of Benghazi during Thursday's "Day of Anger" rallies. At least 20 people are believed to have died in the clashes with Libyan security forces.

Opposition activists said further violent protests broke out after the funerals.

Political anaylsts point out that Libya's relative oil wealth should allow Gadhafi's government to make social and economic concessions, which could stifle an Egypt-style uprising.

However the unrest in Benghazi, the traditional home of the opposition, could still spark a nationwide revolt.

The citizens of Benghazi have a history of antagonism against Gadhafi, who has been in power for more than 40 years, but the city is an anomaly in Libya.

Home of the opposition could provide the spark

Seen as the home of the country's opposition, many Benghazis refused to support Gadhafi when he came to power in a military coup in 1969. As such, unlike the rest of the country, Benghazi has been cut out of much of the country's oil wealth.

"There is a long history of opposition to Gadhafi's idiosyncratic and fiercely repressive regime, but protesting has not been common," Dr. Alia Brahimi, a Libya expert at the London School of Economics and Political Science, told Deutsche Welle.

Brahimi said this was due to the regime's zero-tolerance policy to any form of independent political gathering or organization.

"The state's response has been iron-fisted every time," Brahimi said. "Yet anger at dire socio-economic conditions and the regime's brutality has periodically boiled over onto the streets, particularly in Benghazi and the eastern region of Cyrenaica. The Islamists which emerged to violently challenge Gadhafi in the 1990s were mainly drawn from the Cyrenaican slums."

Dana Moss, a Libya expert and Adjunct Fellow at the Washington Institute, said much of the agitation came for those areas traditionally hostile to the Gadhafi regime.

"These areas have seen continuous hostility and sporadic disturbances aimed at the Gadhafi regime such as the rally against the Muhammad cartoons which turned into an anti-regime demonstration in 2006," Moss told Deutsche Welle.

With a feeling of empowerment sweeping through Arab states, there is a chance that the Benghazi protest may be the spark that ignites simmering resentment elsewhere in the country, especially among Islamic groups which have been clamped down on since Gadhafi renounced terrorism and reached out to the West in the wake of the September 11, 2001 attacks on the US.

Libyan opposition already employing Internet tactics

There are early signs that the opposition is utilizing social networking sites in the same way that the Tunisian and Egytian movements did in the early stages of their own uprisings.

It has also been reported that a Facebook page has been set up to relay information to opposition supporters over the past few days.

The page carried information on the strength of the security forces in Tripoli, advising protestors that no military units were yet in the capital, suggesting the regime was either taken by surprise or expecting little resistance.

Reports have since filtered through that the regime is trying to clampdown on the Internet with Facebook and Twitter accounts being suspended.

If the unrest spreads and grows into a nationwide anti-government movement - like those seen in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Algeria - analysts believe that oil-rich Libya is better equipped to deal with any political upheaval.

Read more about Libya's power structures

Structure of power protects Libya's regime

Rioting is unusual in Libya where Gadhafi's regime keeps an iron grip on the political process in the country. The social structure, built up along tribal lines, does not lend itself to widespread public unrest and mass demonstrations against the regime. Political machinations usually take place off the streets in the corridors of power but are usually quickly extinguished by Gadhafi's supporters.

"Despite espousing a model of 'direct democracy', Gadhafi has largely excluded the people from the political process in Libya," Brahimi said. "In the 1980s, for example, televised hangings and public executions made clear what would be the fate of those souls who dared to organize or agitate against the regime."

Libya is also cash-rich due to its importance as an oil exporter and analysts believe that any popular uprising aimed at unseating the president would be placated by another of the regime's famous exhibitions of financial largesse. Pumping oil money into the economy and services has gone some way to calm unhappiness in the past.

Any uprising can expect to be met by force, say experts

The regime has also shown in the past that it is not adverse to resorting to force to suppress the opposition.

"We can expect that any demonstrations will be violently suppressed," Brahimi said. "In the past, the regime has been able to massacre hundreds of its political opponents at a time, without attracting significant international attention."

But the current focus on the region may bring forth a different reaction, she added.

"With the world's attention focused on North Africa, and the infiltration of the Internet and social media, we may be able to expect less killing and more mass arrests, especially pre-emptive ones," Brahimi said.

Gadhafi also has a reputation for embracing popular movements and portraying himself as a man of the people, allegedly mobilizing thousands of his supporters in 'spontaneous' pro-government rallies around the country as the unrest in neighboring states has gathered pace.

Whether he retains enough support and control over the whole country will be seen in the coming days, especially if Libya's opposition sees the Benghazi unrest as their opportunity to strike.

"The likelihood of these disturbances resulting in any significant change is minimal, bearing in mind the regime's divide and rule strategies, cooptation through the provision of housing, the handing out of cash, and harsh repression when necessary," Moss said. "But we should never say never."

Brahimi also believes that the world should be prepared for any eventuality.

"Should Gadhafi's regime come under serious pressure from both the Libyan street and the international community, a coup attempt cannot be ruled out," she concluded .

Author: Nick Amies

Editor: Rob Mudge