Venezuela: Uncertainty around government-opposition talks

A new round of talks to defuse Venezuela's prolonged national political crisis will kick off in Mexico City on Friday. Norway will mediate the negotiations between Nicolas Maduro's government and the opposition coalition led by Juan Guaido. 

The focus will be on regional elections as well as international sanctions facing the country.

Besides the lifting of these sanctions, Maduro's government is demanding that all "legitimate authorities of Venezuela" be recognized and that the opposition renounce violence. It also wants all opposition parties to join the talks. 

The dialogue comes two years after a failed attempt to reach agreement in Barbados. Past negotiations broke down because the opposition was fragmented and the socialist government refused to give up control of the meeting.

"It seems that there will be a dialogue because both parties are facing setbacks right now. But I think the circumstances are similar to past talks," Venezuelan sociologist Tulio Hernandez told DW. Hernandez emphasized that the government did not seem to be showing goodwill ahead of talks. 

"In fact, it has escalated repression. A few weeks ago, Freddy Guevara, a key opposition figure, was arrested, as was a representative from the NGO Fundar Redes — which has denounced armed groups from Colombia."

Maduro's government is thought to be providing safe haven to leftist guerilla groups from the neighboring country.

Opposition faces criticism

Former mayor and legislator Gerardo Blyde will negotiate on behalf of the opposition coalition made up of four parties. The government will send National Assembly leader Jorge Rodriguez, who has also headed previous dialogues.

Political scientist Pedro Urruchurtu has theories as to why the government might be open to negotiations at this point. 

"The regime's strategy is to buy some time with these dialogues — and some support from other countries — as it has done on past occasions," he said. 

"Additionally, it is taking advantage of the fact that Guaido's interim government and the opposition are worn down. They haven't achieved the results they expected over the past two years," said Urruchurtu, who also coordinates international topics for the opposition party Vente Venezuela. 

Urruchurtu says the party was not asked to join the negotiations but also "wouldn't have accepted" the invitation. 

Urruchurtu's main criticism is that the opposition will sit at the negotiating table without setting any demands: "They should at least demand that political prisoners be freed before joining the negotiations."

Preparing for the elections

Sociologist Hernandez agrees that the government is primarily joining the talks to buy time.

"The government's main goal is to have Maduro finish his term," he said. But there may be other reasons the government is currently open to dialogue.

"They say there may be cracks in the military ranks," Hernandez said about the foundation of Maduro's authority. "It could also be because of the unsustainable economic situation. Regional elections are approaching and the government may be looking for legitimacy by asking the entire opposition to participate."

Voters across Venezuela will head to the polls to elect governors, mayors and Legislative Council members in November. 

Mexico's role

Key as well, is the decision to hold the talks in Mexico — a country that both the government and the opposition respect, as do mediating nations Norway and Russia.

In previous years, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has expressed his desire to help Venezuelans overcome their crisis through dialogue.

Still, not everyone agrees Mexico can be neutral.

"AMLO is allied with Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua," said Hernandez. "He is preparing to be a benefactor of communism."

That is also one of the main reasons Urruchurtu has such low expectations for the negotiations.

"AMLO obviously has an ideological commitment to the Venezuelan regime and that makes it more comfortable for them. The same thing happened [during past talks] in the Dominican Republic," he said. 

"These are not real negotiations though, because they imposed an agenda to remove elements that might pressure the government before they even began."

Despite the circumstances, Hernandez still hopes talks between the Maduro government and opposition will be "fruitful," with both sides agreeing to reach a "democratic way out" of the current national crisis.

Nevertheless, he expects very little.

"That is how many others feel, too. Still, we have to be open to dialogue."