Venezuela gears up for election amid hopes Maduro could go

Authoritarian Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who has been in power since 2013, is running again in this Sunday's election. His time in office so far has been dominated by severe economic problems, political instability and international sanctions.

"These are neither free nor fair elections. The opposition was not able to freely nominate its candidates," Luis Carlos Diaz, a Venezuelan journalist and digital rights defender, told DW.

Carlos Diaz said opposition leader Maria Corina Machado could have posed a threat to Maduro, but she was barred from taking part in the election by Venezuela's Supreme Court in January. Machado is known for her harsh criticism of Maduro's government and her demands for far reaching reforms.

The right to a free vote is a key issue in the upcoming ballot, with international observers and human rights organizations repeatedly criticizing the restrictions on political freedom. The Maduro government is accused of controlling the judiciary and electoral authorities, disqualifying opposition candidates and censoring the media.

Ana Soliz de Stange, a political scientist at Helmut Schmidt University in Hamburg, explained the concerns shared by observers. "These obstructions include the repeated detention of members of the opposition, which also sends a clear signal to the population," she told DW. "Added to this is the government's control of the media and the lack of credible election observers. [Venezuela] revoked its invitation to the EU to send election observers."

Opposition hoping for a miracle

Yet there are several reasons to believe that a miracle could still happen on Sunday. After years of internal discord, the opposition has become more united under Machado's leadership. Though she cannot take part in the elections herself, the opposition was able to agree on an external candidate: Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, a prominent businessman and former diplomat, who is currently polling ahead of Maduro.

If Gonzalez wins, he has promised to introduce economic reforms, fight against corruption and restore the country's democratic institutions.

The economic situation in Venezuela is catastrophic. The country is suffering from hyperinflation, widespread unemployment and a drastic decline in oil production, once the backbone of the economy. Millions of Venezuelans have left the country in search of better living conditions.

"Although this is neither a fair nor transparent election, the alliance of Maria Corina Machado and Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia is confident they can win the election and, with the help of civilian election observers, prevent the electoral authority from announcing a result that does not correspond to the wishes of the population," said Carlos Diaz.

Career diplomat turned politician

Who exactly is Gonzalez, a friendly-looking older gentleman who almost came out of the blue but who could end up being elected president on Sunday?

"Gonzalez Urrutia is a career diplomat who took on the responsibility of replacement candidate in view of the opposition's emergency. His candidacy has actually favored the opposition's chances," said Soliz de Stange. She explained this was due to his very conciliatory messaging which stresses the unity of Venezuelans and rejects polarization. This could appeal to disappointed supporters from the government camp, she added, pointing the way to a democratic transition in the country.

Carlos Diaz agreed that Gonzalez's soft skills were his forte. "He is not a political leader who makes big speeches or is out for confrontation," he said. "He is the opposite of a Latin American populist. But paradoxically, that is precisely his strength at the moment. He is not a threat to the opposition alliance and not a hostile figure for those government supporters who would prefer to live in a democracy."

Maduro win will exacerbate regional problems

Some analysts have argued that, despite polling, Maduro could still win because of the unequal conditions and the repression of the opposition. 

The international community is keeping a close eye on the polls in Venezuela. The US, Canada and several EU member states have not recognized Maduro as the legitimate president. At the same time, Russia, China and Cuba all support Maduro and have spoken out against foreign interference.

If Maduro is reelected, Carlos Diaz fears the consequences will extend beyond Venezuela.

"The election is of great importance for the continent," he said. "If Maduro wins again, there will be a further increase in migration from Venezuela. Eight million Venezuelans have already left their country. That's a quarter of the population."

This article was originally written in Spanish.