US-Taliban deal under pressure days after signing

After the successful implementation of a weeklong reduction in violence in Afghanistan, the US and the Taliban on Saturday inked an agreement to end the 18-year-long war.

The Doha deal sets into motion the drawdown of US troops from Afghanistan — a key Taliban demand since the start of the conflict in 2001.

Within the first 135 days of the deal, the US will reduce its forces to 8,600 from the 13,000 currently stationed in Afghanistan. The agreement  lays out a 14-month period for the withdrawal of "all military forces of the United States, its allies, and Coalition partners, including all non-diplomatic civilian personnel, private security contractors, trainers, advisors, and supporting services personnel."

Both Washington and the Islamist group hailed the deal as a historic milestone, which they say is a major step toward achieving peace in the war-ravaged country.

US troops will start withdrawing from Afghanistan with immediate effect, US President Donald Trump said on Saturday, when asked about the timeframe for the withdrawal.

But it became clear just a day after the signing of the landmark deal that peace in Afghanistan remains a complex affair.

Intra-Afghan talks in jeopardy

The US-Taliban deal paved the way for an intra-Afghan dialogue, however Afghan President Ashraf Ghani's refusal to release Taliban prisoners has dashed hopes for the much-needed negotiations between all Afghan stakeholders.

According to the US-Taliban agreement — which did not involve the Afghan government — Washington committed to working with all parties to the Afghan conflict to secure the release of up to 5,000 Taliban and 1,000 government prisoners, which would potentially lead to intra-Afghan talks. Kabul, however, refused to comply with the plan, asserting that the release of Taliban prisoners will only be discussed during the Taliban's negotiations with Afghan government officials.

President Ghani sent a delegation to Qatar to establish contact with the Taliban and set the agenda for the intra-Afghan talks, but the Taliban, who do not recognize Ghani's government, declined to meet with Afghan officials. The Islamist group demanded that its fighters be released first as a pre-condition for talks.

This row could delay or even cancel peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government.

"If the prisoners' release issue is not resolved soon, the intra-Afghan dialogue will not commence on March 10," Faiz Mohammad Zaland, an Afghan expert who attended the Doha signing ceremony, told DW.

Read more:Opinion: Goodbye to democracy in the Hindu Kush? 

Kabul's reservations

The Afghan government believes that releasing thousands of Taliban prisoners in less than 10 days is logistically impossible. Afghan authorities also say that the Taliban need to give them an assurance that after their fighters are released, they will not return to the battlefield.

"If they [Taliban] want to discuss prisoners, then they should not have any other conditions because we have our own conditions," Ghani recently told a gathering in the eastern Nangarhar province.

Kabul believes that the release of prisoners should be a part of a broader agreement between Afghan stakeholders that must include a ceasefire and a commitment from the Taliban to severing ties with all terrorist groups and upholding human rights.

"Come so that we can agree on principles […] and conduct proper negotiations," Ghani said.

"Given Kabul's discomfort about this prospect of a prisoner release, I think it's unlikely that the US would have gotten the buy-in and cooperation from Kabul that would be necessary to take steps in advance," Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, told DW.

Taliban resume attacks on Afghan forces

On Tuesday, the Taliban carried out more than a dozen attacks on Afghan army bases in 13 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces. These assaults mark an end to the partial one-week truce in Afghanistan.

Read more: US-Taliban deal — a victory for Islamists? 

The Taliban say they will not attack international troops in Afghanistan, but their deal with the US does not stop them from targeting Afghan forces.

Kugelman believes the Taliban woud like to use violence to increase pressure on the Afghan government ahead of their possible negotiations with Kabul.

"Violence is leverage for the Taliban, and they won't want to give that up now. They will want to deploy violence to strengthen their bargaining position in future talks with the Afghan government," he said.

Afghanistan experts believe that although the US-Taliban deal is a big first step toward peace, it is now up to Afghan stakeholders to seal an ultimate peace agreement.

"The question isn't if the US-Taliban deal will fail, but rather if the Afghan government and the Taliban will fail to capitalize on the window of opportunity to launch a peace process," Kugelman underlined.

"The US-Taliban deal isn't an end in itself; it's more of a stepping stone or a pathway to launch a peace process," Kugalman said.

Read more: Afghanistan: 100,000 civilian casualties over last decade — UN