US-Taiwan aid package a signal to China ahead of election?

US President Joe Biden recently approved one of Washington's largest-ever military aid packages for Taiwan, comprising $567 million (€517 million) worth of defense aid.

The aid will be provided via the presidential drawdown authority, which allows for the "speedy delivery of defense articles" from US Department of Defense stocks "to respond to foreign crises." The US is already using this process to send military aid to Ukraine.

China considers Taiwan to be its territory, which President Xi Jinping has vowed will one day be "reunited" with the mainland, by force if necessary. Beijing has been increasing pressure on the self-ruled island, for example, by demonstrating force with regular military exercises in the Taiwan Strait.

Although it doesn't maintain official diplomatic relations with Taipei, the US is Taiwan's largest security benefactor. China considers any military support of Taiwan to be a provocation.

The White House has said its goal in supporting Taiwan's self-defense is to "continue to maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait."

With the US presidential election coming up in November, Chinese pressure on Taiwan is set to be a challenge for the incoming president, whether it be Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump.

Joseph Bosco, a former Pentagon official on China policy, told DW that "we don't know exactly how [a new] administration will treat Taiwan."

He added the Biden administration was therefore "trying to accelerate the transfer of resources as much as possible during this period."

Bosco, who served as China country director in the office of the US Secretary of Defense from 2005 to 2006, said the current administration is confident of continuity on China policy from Harris, but "it is not at all clear" what a second Trump administration would do.

Which way would Trump go on Taiwan?

Trump's first administration was hawkish on China, launching a trade war in an attempt to isolate the Chinese economy. Trump also bolstered US security assistance to Taiwan, with $18 billion worth of arms sales notified to Congress during his administration.

However, Trump's "transactional" approach to foreign policy is an ongoing concern for US allies in Asia and elsewhere.

Bosco said the Republican presidential candidate has been "very unsympathetic" in his statements about Taiwan and has become unpredictable about his future Taiwan policy.

"There's no telling which way he could go," he said, adding that he thinks Biden is "hedging his bets" in approving the defense aid drawdown ahead of the election.

During his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump has claimed that Taiwan has taken America's microchip business, and told Bloomberg in July that Taiwan should "pay the US for defense."

Harris could diverge from Biden on Taiwan

If Harris wins the November election, her administration could adopt a different tone on Taiwan than Biden, who told a TV interview in 2022 that US forces would defend Taiwan if there was an "unprecedented attack." The White House later walked back the remarks.

Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund's Indo-Pacific program, wrote in a recent analysis that "Harris might not echo Biden's persistent stance that he will send US forces to defend Taiwan if China invades the island."

"She may opt instead to return to a more traditional policy of strategic ambiguity," Glaser wrote.

Bosco said Harris would "pretty much follow the Biden policies" in the beginning. However, he added that if China starts "ramping up the pressure on Taiwan and makes some overt moves toward Taiwan ... then we'll see how committed she is to Taiwan's security."

Delays in US defense aid deliveries

Under the US' "one-China" policy in place since 1979, the US "reserves the right" to provide Taiwan with defensive weapons.

Under the policy, the US "acknowledges" but does not officially recognize Beijing's position that Taiwan is part of China, while recognizing the People's Republic of China as the sole legal government of China.

China bristles at any support of Taiwan. China's Foreign Ministry responded to the latest US aid package by accusing the US of "emboldening" Taipei to provoke Beijing and threaten the status quo. 

In July 2023, Biden approved a presidential drawdown authority to Taiwan for the first time, signing off on a $345 million package.

However, delivery problems from the 2023 drawdown were outlined in a September 2024 report by the Department of Defense's inspector general.

The report found a large percentage of equipment sustained water damage while waiting months at a military base for shipment.

It said the Department of Defense "did not effectively or efficiently implement accountability and quality controls" and "provided unserviceable and poorly packaged equipment and munitions to Taiwan."

Taiwan has also reported delays in the delivery of equipment ordered years ago, including Stinger portable anti-aircraft missiles and new F-16V fighter jets.

According to the Cato Institute, a US think tank, the top-line figure for the backlog of US arms sales to Taiwan remains at $20.5 billion.

Taiwan a challenge for any administration

Besides technical issues, former Pentagon official Bosco said political shifts can also affect US support for Taiwan.

"At some point, other factors enter into the picture: the economy, inflation," Bosco said. "The American public will decide that it's had enough of spending US resources in these various international conflicts."

"A lot of it will depend on the leadership that is shown by the new president in terms of convincing the American public that we need to be involved in these crises … It'll be a tough challenge for any new administration," he added.

Glaser from the German Marshall Fund told DW that the latest presidential drawdown authority approval "sent a strong signal to Beijing" that the US is resolved to help Taiwan bolster its defense capabilities. 

However, she downplayed the importance of its approval ahead of the election.

"There is strong bipartisan support in the US for Taiwan and regardless of the outcome of the US election, arms transfers to Taiwan will continue," Glaser said. "I don't see any special significance in the timing of this."

Edited by: Wesley Rahn