US, Japan and Philippines summit: What's next for Asia?

US President Joe Biden, Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will meet in Washington on Thursday to strengthen defense and economic ties between the three nations.

While officials have said the summit is not aimed against any specific country, it comes amid escalating tensions over the South China Sea.

In recent months, the Chinese Coast Guard has repeatedly confronted resupply missions to the Philippine outpost on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, with Chinese ships using water cannons and risky maneuvers to block the Philippine vessels.

The outpost on the Second Thomas Shoal is in the waters claimed both by China and the Philippines.

Japan has also faced incursions in disputed waters, with Tokyo accusing China of installing buoys near Senkaku, an uninhabited chain of islands under Japanese control in the East China Sea.

This week's summit could see Washington, Tokyo and Manila forge a separate security system, with less emphasis on US leadership. Traditionally, the US was seen as the hub of the wheel for its Asian allies. Although the Philippines and Japan are strategic partners, they operated largely in this US-centric framework, said Philippines-based geopolitical analyst Don McLain Gill.

The Washington conference signals a change.

"This three way represents the growing desire in Manila and Tokyo and even in Washington to go beyond traditional models in order to further integrate collaborative efforts based on common goals," Gill told DW.

Manila, Tokyo growing closer

Tokyo has recently moved to deepen security cooperation with Manila, discussing a military pact that would allow troops from both countries to deploy to the partner country for drills and exercises. Just this week, Japan participated in a joint maritime exercise on the West Philippine Sea alongside the United States and Australia.

Georgi Engelbrecht, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, describes Japan as a "quiet champion" in Asia.

"Maybe it started with the intensification in the Senkaku dispute, then continued with the [former Japanese PM Shinzo] Abe administration, but it culminated in this awareness of the Indo-Pacific, where it looks at Southeast Asia also as an area that can be supported in various means, in order to further underline certain ideals that this part of the world shares," he told DW.

To Engelbrecht, the trilateral summit is not a surprise, and shows the convergence of stronger ties between Japan and the Philippines and the US' resurging alliance.

Japan has 'the muscle'

After the trilateral summit, the US could take a position at the top of a triangle, with Japan and the Philippines at the base, working closely together, said Carlyle Thayer, emeritus professor of politics at the University of New South Wales in Australia.

He noted the ongoing cooperation between the three coast guards and a meeting between national security advisers of the three countries. 

Help from Japan could also change the equation in the dispute between China and the Philippines.

"Japan is experiencing the same kind of harassment, except Japan has big heavy coast guard ships. I'll use rugby [as a metaphor]. Southeast Asia is like a high school team, playing the pros. By sheer weight you're going to be worn down, but Japan has got the muscle," Thayer added.

Experts have pointed out that while the summit is a meeting of equals and like-minded nations, the Philippines lags way behind Japan and the United States in terms of economic development and military capabilities.

"What's going to happen is […] defense ministers [will] fine-tune whatever defense cooperation is going to go, but really work on the economic side because the investment will create more jobs for Filipinos. A strong economy will help whichever government remains in power over the years, so that the lure of China providing those millions can be set aside if Japan and the US up the ante," Thayer said.

Elections might spoil plans

The meeting between Biden, Kishida and Marcos Jr. will focus on issues such as inclusive economic growth, as well as climate cooperation and promote peace and stability in the region, said US press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre.

Analysts have said this will likely include details on the troop access deal between Japan and the Philippines, and Japanese military equipment to boost the modernization of the Philippines' armed forces. Taiwan is also expected to be on the agenda.

At the same time, experts warned that a single summit will not solve or manage tensions on the South China Sea.

"The bigger question is [...] if this will sustain in the long run," Gill said, noting that presidential systems such as the Philippines and the US are prone to shifts in foreign policy, depending on who takes office.

The US is due for an election later this year, and the Philippines might get a new president in 2028, possibly ending Marcos' push to shore up partnerships with the EU, Australia, Japan and the US.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic