US election: How would Kamala Harris deal with Iran?

Following the withdrawal of US President Joe Biden from the US presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris is widely expected to be nominated as the Democrat's candidate in the coming weeks. 

If Harris wins the presidency, she is expected to largely stick to Biden's foreign policy script on key issues.

"Harris's policy appears to pursue a conflicted de-escalation with Iran by trying to reach, if not a new nuclear deal, at least a new agreement or understanding that would pause Iran's nuclear weapon development," Arman Mahmoudian, lecturer and international affairs analyst at the University of South Florida in the US, told DW.

"On the other hand, Harris is also interested in developing a new generation of human rights-oriented policies toward Iran, specifically improving women's rights. The combination of these two approaches makes it challenging for her to pursue Iran policy effectively," he added.

Standing up for women's rights in Iran

As vice president, Harris has met several times with well-known personalities from the Iranian diaspora, including in October 2022 with Iranian-British actress Nazanin Boniadi during the nationwide "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests in Iran.

Harris has condemned the authorities' harsh treatment of protesters.

"The United States continues to stand with the brave women of Iran as they protest peacefully for their fundamental rights and basic human dignity," Harris said in November 2022.

Harris also supported the Iranian women's demand to exclude the Islamic Republic of Iran from the United Nations Commission on the Status of Women.

This commission is the highest UN body for gender equality. Iran's election to this commission outraged women's and human rights activists from the outset.

"International organizations have to take themselves seriously if they want to be taken seriously," Iranian Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi told DW in April 2021.

"Kamala Harris could support further demands by Iranian women," added Mohammadi's husband, Taghi Rahmani.

Rahmani, a writer and political journalist, has left Iran and lives with the couple's children in Paris. Mohammadi is in Tehran's notorious Evin prison for her peaceful campaign for human and women's rights in Iran.

"Narges is calling for gender discrimination to be made a criminal offense at an international level. This means that those responsible in countries where women are systematically discriminated against on the basis of their gender should be held accountable by international bodies," said Rahmani.

"Harris could support such a demand if she were to become the first female president of the United States. She could support the women's movement in Iran," he added.

Dealing with Iran's perennial nuclear problem

On Iran's nuclear program, Harris has consistently defended the nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed with Iran in 2015, and she has considered it a significant achievement of the Democratic Party during Barack Obama's presidency.

The US unilaterally withdrew from this agreement, which was reached after more than 12 years of international negotiations, under former President Donald Trump in 2018. Trump said he was convinced he could negotiate a "better deal" than the one signed by his predecessor Obama.

However, Trump's policy of "maximum pressure" on Iran remained unsuccessful. One year after the US withdrew from the agreement, Iran also began to gradually abandon the commitments it had made. Today, Iran is closer than ever to being able to produce a nuclear bomb.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran is interested in de-escalation and easing sanctions pressure, but is strict on not compromising domestic politics, as they fear it might lead to more demands and challenge the government further," said Iran expert Mahmoudian.

Over the past four years, President Biden has tried several times to revive the nuclear agreement with Iran. All these attempts have failed.

"I believe Harris has a chance to reach a new deal or understanding with Iran regarding nuclear policy. However, her path might be even harder than that of President Obama during the JCPOA negotiations for several reasons," added Mahmoudian.

He said the little trust that existed between the US and Iran before the withdrawal from the JCPOA, and the killing of General Qassim Soleimani in 2020, has been "demolished."

Another factor cited by Mahmoudian is that the US Congress is relatively under Republican control, and Iranians might be concerned that Republicans could undermine the deal.

"Harris' diplomatic maneuvers might also be restricted by Congress," he said.

Additionally, Iran's nuclear project and breakout time to a nuclear weapon are much closer and more advanced than during the initial JCPOA implementation, Mahmoudian said.

"The United States needs to bargain for more and ask Iran to make more compromises because Iran's breakout time is shorter. On the other hand, Iranians might feel they have stronger leverage over the Americans and demand higher concessions, making the negotiations quite difficult," he said.

This article was originally written in German and translated by Wesley Rahn.