US election: EU wants Kamala Harris in the White House

If Europeans were to elect the next US president on November 5, the result would be crystal clear.

In Western Europe, 69% would vote for the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, in Eastern Europe 46% would.

Republican candidate Donald Trump would only receive the support of 16% of voters in Western Europe and 36% in Eastern Europe, according to a survey by pollsters Novus and Gallup International undertaken in October.

Harris has the highest ratings in Denmark (85%) and Finland (82%) while Donald Trump has the most fans in Europe in Serbia (59%) and Hungary (49%). Both of the latter countries are becoming increasingly autocratic.

Trump fans a minority

"It would be the best thing if Mr. Trump wins the elections," Andras Lazlo, a member of the European Parliament from Hungary, told DW.

Lazlo is a member of Fidesz, the party of Russia-friendly, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

"Americans seek a change in US politics, they've had enough of the status quo and only Trump can deliver that," he said.

Such change is needed in Brussels as well, the right-wing nationalist politician adds. "Can we stop escalating conflicts not only in Ukraine and the Middle East but also in South East Asia?" he asks. In his opinion, only Trump can lead the global community in this.

Hungary currently holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union and Hungarian leader Orban caused anger in the EU when he set off on a "peace mission" to Kyiv, Moscow, Beijing and the Trump residence in Palm Beach this summer. Orban believes that Donald Trump could end the Russian war in Ukraine within a few days. In October, Orban, a loyal Trump supporter, said that a Trump victory would be a great reason to open several bottles of champagne.

Orban is the only one of EU and NATO heads of government to hold this opinion.

"But many far-right and nationalist politicians — from the Netherlands to Germany and Italy — certainly agree with Orban," Steven Blockmans, a senior research fellow at the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies, told DW. And "they could feel emboldened by Donald Trump's election victory."

Harris policies more predictable

The vast majority of EU heads of government back Harris.

"I know her well, she would certainly be a good president," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in a television interview. Harris wants to "stick to what is important to us," Scholz added, referring to trans-Atlantic cooperation.

What would Europe's reaction to a Harris victory be? "A collective sigh of relief, absolutely," Blockmans told DW.

Harris' policies are more predictable. After all, she has been vice president serving under US President Joe Biden for four years, he said. "Despite all the talk in Europe about creating more strategic autonomy, in fact, the reliance on the US has grown, both in terms of security and energy."

The United States has also been instrumental in supporting Ukraine in their war effort against Russia. And with Europe's decoupling of energy ties from Russia, it has made itself more dependent on US gas exports to Europe, Blockmans noted.

"She gives hope to people. It would be a massive win to join the democratic forces in the US and Europe," Tineke Strik, a member of the European Parliament with the Dutch Greens, told DW. In contrast, Trump is more inclined to flirt with the autocrats of the world and he encourages them, she added.

"They would get empowered by him and that is very bad news for democracy, fundamental rights and the world that we would like to live in," Strik argued.

Prepared for all eventualities

The head of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the European Parliament, David McAllister, a German conservative, warns against expecting too much.

A future President Trump or President Harris would make more demands of the EU.

"We need to prepared for both possible outcomes of this election. It is in our own interest that we have the closest possible relations with the United States, regardless of who is sitting in the White House," he told DW. "The tone would be different, but I'm certain a Harris administration would also call for Europeans to do more for our own security and defence." 

EU diplomats from the 27 member states and the EU Commission in Brussels have been in confidential working groups for weeks already, discussing how to deal with the US election outcomes, whatever they may be. The main aim is to make economic and security policy as "Trump-proof" as possible, reports an EU diplomat who did not wish to be named.

For example, should Trump impose punitive tariffs on goods from Europe after taking office, the aim is to be able to retaliate immediately.

'We need to do more'

"We are not prepared to give up our interests without a fight. We have significantly expanded our toolbox," Bernd Lange, a German politician and chair of the Committee on International Trade in the European Parliament, told DW. "I am sure that after the election we will use this toolbox to combat things that are already wrong, such as illegal tariffs on steel or subsidies from the Inflation Adjustment Act."

Lange said he expects US trade policy to become more challenging for the EU, no matter who wins these elections.  

"I would say the US is switching from a multilateral to a domestic approach in economic policies, I call it 'homeland' economy. There is no big difference between Republicans and Democrats [on that]," Lange said.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has a similiar prediction for foreign and security policy.

At a press conference during a visit to London at the end of October, Pistorius said: "One way or another, in future, the US is very likely to do less in Europe. And for us that means we must do more."

This article was translated from German.