Diplomatic dilemma

Stemming from a deadly Israeli commando raid in international waters on a Turkish flotilla delivering aid to the Palestinian territory of Gaza in May last year, the crisis has escalated in recent days over Israel's decision not to apologize for the raid that claimed the lives of nine Turkish activists. It has also said it will keep its controversial naval blockade on the Gaza Strip in place.

"Israel defends its interests and its government will not apologize," Israel Katz, Israel's transport minister and a member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party, said last week. "Israel maintains its naval blockade of Gaza to stop the transfer of weapons to terrorists from Hamas."

Turkey responded to Israel's hard line by ejecting Israel's ambassador, suspending military agreements with the Jewish state and threatening to lodge a legal case against Israel before the International Criminal Court. It also condemned the United Nations report on the flotilla raid, which described the Israeli operation as "excessive" but "legal," as it failed to condemn the naval blockade.

Turkey's response was swift and aggressive. Just days after the report was published, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan revealed plans to increase Turkey's marine presence in the Eastern Mediterranean and then announced at a subsequent press conference that "trade relations, military relations, the relationships between defense companies - all of these things [with Israel] will be completely frozen." He added that "additional steps will follow" suggesting more sanctions against Israel.

Erdogan, who also announced that he would follow up an official visit to Egypt in September by visiting the Gaza Strip then accused Israel of acting "like a spoiled child" when it came to its attitude toward the Palestinians and vowed to stand against what he called "a whiff of state-sponsored terrorism" emanating from the Jewish state.

While the row has been escalating between its two allies, the United States has been playing catch-up behind the scenes after apprently being caught out by the speed and seriousness of the crisis.

Washington lagging behind

US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton met Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu in Paris recently to express Washington's "concern" over the souring relations and to encourage Turkey to "de-escalate" and "defuse" the crisis.

While encouraging dialogue is the least the US can do considering the weight it carries with both countries, some regional commentators believe Washington may be forced to get its hands a lot dirtier should the crisis escalate.

"There a two things that will force the US to get more involved; a naval confrontation in the Eastern Mediterranean between Turkey and Israel, or a confrontation between the White House and Congress," Henri Barkey, professor of international relations at Pennsylvania's Lehigh University, told Deutsche Welle. "The Pro-Israeli lobby has been quiet for a while but now there is no love lost and if it chooses to, it can make life very difficult for the president."

The most likely scenario, he said, would see the US waiting for the most opportune moment to step in and act. "But then Turkey has nothing to lose and everything to gain because they feel that they are so important to the US that nothing they can do will lose them Washington's support. As a result, any US intervention is unlikely to make a difference."

Steven Cook, senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, agrees that Turkey will sit this one out. "I would be surprised if Ankara did not game out the US reaction to its decision to downgrade relations with Israel and came to the conclusion that there was more domestic and regional political upside than downside. There isn't much Washington can do to hold Ankara's feet to the fire on this one."

Dr. James Ker-Lindsay, senior research fellow on the politics of South East Europe at the London School of Economics, agrees that Turkey is in a strong position with the US, more so perhaps than even Israel.

"Turkey is a hugely important ally; militarily and strategically as a member of NATO, and as an energy partner it provides alternative gas and oil transit routes to those running through Russia so it can't be cut loose," he told Deutsche Welle. "Also, cutting Turkey loose would encourage Ankara to pursue its objective of leading the Islamic world and who knows where that could lead, especially if relations with Israel are cut completely."

Turkey and Israel have enjoyed cordial relations for decades but have endured serious disagreements in the past, most notably in 1964 when Israel refused to support Turkey's anti-Greek position on Cyprus and in 1980 when Turkey refused to recognize the Knesset's ruling on legislation that made a united Jerusalem the legal capital of Israel.

Turkish leadership

The Arab Spring, which has swept a number of North African and Middle East leaders out of power and made many more in the region very nervous, has presented Turkey with an opportunity to increase its profile as a regional power and gain supporters through its new anti-Israel position which has delighted the Arab world.

"There's always been a suspicion that Erdogan, with his Islamist tendencies, wanted better relations with the Arab world and with Turkey's membership of the European Union going nowhere, what we're seeing could be a complete realignment of Turkish foreign policy, not just a reaction to the flotilla raid," said Ker-Lindsay.

Erdogan's trip to Cairo beginning on September 12 could be seen as an attempt to persuade Egypt's Supreme Military Council to adopt a similar position on Israel.

Despite Egyptian assurances that peace agreements with Israel won't be reneged upon, there is a growing clamor on Egypt's streets for the military leaders to do just that and break its bonds with Israel.

"Turkey looks like it wants to push Israel harder and doesn't want to make a deal which is going down well in Islamic countries," Barkey said. "The US was caught with its pants down when it came to the Arab angle."

Erdogan would be playing to a sympathetic crowd in Egypt should he choose to use his visit to put extra pressure on Israel, just as he will be if his Arab Spring tour continues as planned to Libya and Tunisia where the new pro-Turkey mood has also prospered. While this may help to raise his country's profile and possibly persuade Israel to play by Ankara's rules, the game Erdogan is playing may be far more dangerous and volatile.

Regional volatility

"Erdogan is operating with a high degree of calculation here and this Israel stance will of course play well in the Arab world," said Ker-Lindsay. "He's attempting to show the Arabs that Turkey can be a shining light; a democratic, Islamic nation with the power to be an international actor on the world stage."

Even if Turkey doesn't so obviously bait Israel, Erdogan's Gaza trip, should it go ahead, would certainly be considered by Israel as highly provocative, especially as Turkey has campaigned for recognition of a Palestinian state at the UN, a vote on which is due in September.

Israel, meanwhile, is preparing for the possibility of one of its last remaining allies in the region jumping ship by courting potential new partnerships with countries like Greece.

Israel has already exhanged strategic treaties, official visits, and intelligence and military links with Athens, as well as signing deals for joint gas and oil exploration projects. But Greece lacks Turkey's regional power and with fewer friendly neighbors with clout than ever, Israel could find itself standing alone in the Middle East, encircled by newly emboldened Arab rivals.

Author: Nick Amies

Editor: Rob Mudge