Understanding Ecuador's 'internal armed conflict'

A show of power is more impressive if the whole country is watching. This was presumably the strategy of around a dozen armed individuals who gained access to a television studio of the broadcaster Canal TC in the port city of Guayaquil in Ecuador on Tuesday, January 9, 2024.

Viewers suddenly found themselves witnessing journalists being violently harassed: One had a rectangular object resembling a stick of dynamite, with a fuse attached, put in his chest pocket.

A hand grenade was brandished at the camera, shots were fired at the studio ceiling, and the broadcast continued for several minutes before it was stopped. Later, the police said that they had "restored order," arrested 13 intruders, and seized a number of weapons and explosives.

The brief hostage-taking in the TV studio was the third attention-grabbing event in just a few days. They have followed a pattern of "attack and counter-attack." The escalation began on Sunday, January 7, 2024, with the escape from prison of drug lord Jose Adolfo Macias, known as "Fito."

In response, President Daniel Noboa declared a 60-day state of emergency, with a military presence on the street and night-time curfews. The television studio was invaded the following day, and there were also attacks on the streets in both Guayaquil and other cities, some of which were fatal. Hostages were taken in several prisons.

President Noboa declares martial law

The government responded with another massive escalation. Noboa, who only took office in November 2023, has declared Ecuador to be in a state of "internal armed conflict."

He issued a decree that designates 22 criminal gangs and cartels terrorist organizations and non-state warring parties. At the same time, he also authorized the military to move against them under United Nations international humanitarian law. The government estimates that are a total of around 20,000 members of these groups.

"They wanted to spread fear, but they have aroused our anger," Ecuador's defense minister Gian Carlo Loffredo said on social media. "They thought they could subjugate an entire country, but they forgot that the army is trained for war."

Long descent into violence

With 22,400 soldiers confronting 22 gangs, Ecuador is facing even bloodier times. This is the preliminary climax of a crisis that has been escalating for years. It was thrust center-stage with the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in August 2023. A prominent journalist, Villavicencio had announced a tough crackdown on corruption and organized crime if he won the election. Seven suspects in his murder were subsequently killed in prison, just before the runoff.

In 2023, Ecuador recorded 46.5 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants — a grim national record. The once peaceful Andean nation now ranks among the most dangerous in Latin America.

Drug cartels are taking over prisons

For a long time, drug cartels were not as powerful in Ecuador as in neighboring countries such as Colombia and Peru, which led the world in the production of cocaine. Some attribute this relative calm to the former presence of the US military in Ecuador. However, in 2009, the US Air Force had to close its base in the coastal city of Manta, because then-President Rafael Correa no longer wanted it in the country.

In the years that followed, several drug cartels managed to gain ground in Ecuador. Some had connections to powerful gangs in Mexico that were vying for dominance over international drug trafficking routes.

State is reclaiming control of prisons

One of the most powerful gangs of today emerged in the 1990s in the western Ecuadorian city of Chone. They call themselves simply "Los Choneros," and are believed to have connections with Mexico's powerful Sinaloa cartel. Fito is their leader, and it was his disappearance from a prison in Guayaquil on Sunday that sparked the escalation. The 44-year-old was supposed to be transferred that day to a higher-security cell.

The fact that gangs like the Choneros are able to operate freely even in prisons is a problem for Ecuador. In an interview with DW, political scientist Luis Cordova, who coordinates the Research, Order, Conflict, and Violence program at the Central University of Ecuador, described an "illegal economy." 

"Between them, they are managing almost $700,000 in the regional prison of Guayaquil alone," he said.

Cordova warns that this, along with a lack of scrutiny of the administration of assets and capital, has turned Ecuadorian prisons into a "strategic hub for the planning and distribution of drugs."

A big risk for the government

"Prisons were places where they felt safe, because they controlled them," government spokesperson Roberto Izurieta told DW. But: "The fact that Fito is now on the run shows that he no longer felt safe there. And he is currently being pursued by the full authority of state."

Izurieta pledged that the government's approach would take into consideration the safety both of innocent people and of members of the security forces.

"We are taking control in the prisons — no one has done that before," he said.

But President Daniel Noboa doesn't have much time. His mandate only runs until May 2025, as he was only elected to complete the term of his predecessor, Rafael Correa, who was convicted of corruption. Waging all-out war on the cartels is very risky, both for his political ambitions and for the country as a whole.

In an interview with German public broadcaster ARD, the analyst Renato Rivera Rhon expressed concern that the cartels wielded too much influence in the police, military, and judiciary. 

"Given this institutional weakness, it is highly unlikely that the government will succeed, at least in the short term," he warned.

This article has been translated from German.