Parliamentary elections in times of war

They shoot. They kill. They die. But they won't vote. Approximately 25,000 soldiers currently engaged in fighting in eastern Ukraine are barred from taking part in Sunday's snap parliamentary elections due to formal reasons. The parliament in Kyiv turned out to be unable to pass a bill enabling them to vote away from their homes. On Ukrainian TV the defense minister said that his soldiers and he himself were furious.

What's more, people in the Crimean peninsula which has been annexed by Russia won't be able to vote. And a similar state of affairs is at hand in the separatist rebel-controlled eastern Ukrainian Donetsk and Luhansk regions where, according to the Central Election Commission in Kyiv, at least 13 out of 32 constituencies will not see any voting. Therefore the new parliament will seat a mere 420 delegates instead of the former 450.

President in the fast lane

In total, 29 political parties will compete for voter allegiance. One half of the candidates enters the assembly via party lists, the other half via direct mandates in their respective constituencies. For months it has been clear that the winner will be Petro Poroshenko. The president's alliance, the "Poroshenko bloc," has taken the lead in opinion polls, and is expected to win between 20 and 30 percent of the vote. The "bloc" was only founded at the end of August 2014 originating from Poroshenko's 'Solidarity' party which up to that point had existed only on paper, occupying no seats in the Ukrainian parliament.

The election carries a lot of weight with president Poroshenko. According to the constitution both parliament and the government wield more power than the head of state. Therefore, observers suggest, Poroshenko's aim is a parliamentary majority to back him. This could be achieved via direct mandates and with help from coalition partners.

Return of the Yushchenko generation

The president had tried to win over Prime Minster Arseny Yatseniuk for his alliance, but the two were unable to reach an agreement. Instead of Yatseniuk, Kyiv mayor and former World Boxing Champion Vitaly Klitschko is at the helm of "Poroshenko's bloc." Klitschko's "Udar" (Strike) party, previously represented in Ukrainian parliament, has become the bloc's backbone. Klitschko's status as frontrunner in the election or former interior minister Yuriy Lutsenko position as party leader are prime examples: Poroshenko's alliance is partially composed of politicians from the era of pro-western president Victor Yushchenko. Currently, Ukraine is seeing the return of a generation which was in power until 2010.

The relatively high poll ratings of 'Poroshenko's "bloc" are the result of various factors, according to Viktor Zamiatin, political analyst at the Razumkov Centre for Economic and Political studies in Kyiv. "First and foremost, many voters associate Poroshenko with a peaceful solution of the Eastern Ukrainian conflict." In addition to that, Poroshenko's agenda for reform called 'Strategy 2020' appears to be popular, the analyst said. In "Strategy 2020", the president pledges to lead Ukraine into the EU.

Man with the pitchfork

Poroshenko's decision, however, to grant the separatists in Eastern Ukraine large-scale autonomy, has been met with criticism. For instance, right-wing populist and leader of the 'Radical Party' Oleg Lyashko has slammed it as "capitulation." Opinion polls show the Radical Party as runners-up or coming in third, likely to garner ten percent of the vote. Lyashko has a penchant for presenting himself as a no-holds-barred patriot: he poses for the camera either with a pitchfork, the emblem of the peasants' riots, or with a Kalashnikov.

"Those who vote for Lyashko today voted for the nationalist 'Svoboda' ('Freedom') party in 2012," Zamiatin said. However, there is a big question mark behind 'Svoboda' re-entering parliament, the analyst continued. Similarly, the 'Right Sector', a right-wing nationalist party established in 2014, is unlikely to overcome the five percent hurdle. While 'Svoboda' and 'Right Sector' have powerful extremist wings as well as an ideological basis, the same does not apply to the Lyashko party. "He is just a populist," says Zamiatin.

Tymoshenko to stay out?

What's more, joining the ranks of Poroshenko's opponents are former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko and her "Batkivshchyna" (Fatherland) party. She is expected to gain considerably fewer votes than in 2012. At the time Tymoshenko had been imprisoned following a trial which had drawn international criticism. Her party was, then, led by today's Prime Minister Yatseniuk. This time, Tymoshenko and Yatseniuk are going their separate ways, with the latter leading his own alliance, the 'People's Front.' Several politicians from the Tymoshenko camp have joined forces with him. Opinion polls suggest that Tymoshenko may narrowly miss the five percent hurdle.

Supporters of ousted Moscow-backed president Viktor Yanukovich are viewed as big-time losers in this election. Many of them joined the "Opposition Bloc." It is doubtful whether the party will manage to enter parliament. Its loyal voters are based in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine - hence, in areas where elections were ruled out. The Communists are facing a similar quandary.

Young politicians striving for parliament

Therefore it seems certain that the new parliament will, for the first time, have a comfortable pro-western majority. However, hopes for a new beginning are compromised. "Regrettably, we haven't seen a real competition of ideas and party programs in this election," analyst Zamiatin said.

In addition to that, critics have found fault with the fact that corrupt politicians still can make it into parliament via direct mandates. By contrast, newly-founded small parties, such as "Samopomich" (Selfhelp), headed by Andriy Sadovy, mayor of the western Ukrainian town of Lviv, will have a rough ride ahead of them. There is a degree of irony in this as those forces were responsible for the transition of power in the first place.