Tight election contest expected in Angola

Every day, 23-year-old Joaquim comes to the "Baixa" — the lower region of Angola's capital, Luanda — to look for odd jobs, such as a messenger or load carrier in one of the many stores or warehouses in the area.

"We want a political change: a new government," Joaquim told DW. "Above all, this new government should focus on jobs and education for young people." He is determined to vote for the opposition in Wednesday's elections.

Sofia, an 18-year-old student, agrees with Joaquim. "We hardly get a chance on the job market, and things are also miserable in schools. There should be a lot more training opportunities," Sofia said, adding that what the young people want is finally a new party at the top.

For Valdemar, 29, many young people have lost trust in the long-ruling People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), led by President Joao Lourenco, the one-term incumbent. He blamed the MPLA for breaking many of its campaign promises.

Youth want change

"Angola is a young country, and Angola's youth want change," Alex Vines, head of the Africa program at Chatham House, told DW.

Vines said Adalberto Costa Junior, the candidate for the largest opposition party, the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA), was very popular in the country's five biggest cities, where the vast majority of people live.

About 14.3 million eligible voters can choose among eight political parties. At stake is the distribution of the 220 seats in the Angolan parliament.

According to Angola's constitution, the leader of the party with the most parliamentary seats will automatically become president of the republic.

Three main election issues: Jobs, poverty, corruption

The campaign strategists of the eight parties have sought to court the youth vote, mainly focusing on topics such as unemployment, education and vocational training.

There was also a lot of talk about poverty and the best concepts for combating it.

Corruption featured prominently during the campaigns. For example, the opposition accuses the MPLA of using state funds for its election campaign.

Lourenco had made the fight against corruption a central issue in his first election campaign, in 2017.

At the time, he promised to introduce new compliance rules for state-owned companies, especially for the all-important oil industry. In addition, powerful ex-generals were targeted by the Angolan judiciary for corruption, and not even the relatives of his predecessor, the late President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, were spared.

Finger-pointings

The main rivals exchanged barbs during the election campaign, accusing each other of involvement with immoral individuals. 

During a rally in Malanje, President Joao Lourenco acused UNITA of making "alliances with corrupt people." UNITA responded with a counter allegation that it's the MPLA which associates with corrupt people.

The ruling MPLA implicitly accused UNITA of having its election campaign financed by the children of Eduardo dos Santos but provided no evidence for this allegation.

On the other hand, UNITA called Lourenco's anti-corruption measures "cosmetic" to achieve publicity, while the fight against graft continues to be neglected.

The two favorites 

Of the eight candidates, only two — Lourenco and Costa Junior — have a real chance of winning.

Incumbent Lourenco, 68, became involved with his party as a youth and worked his way up. He was in the MPLA's politburo for many years, became governor of several inland provinces, and later defense minister.

In 2017, Jose Eduardo dos Santos chose him as his successor.

During the 2022 election campaign, he strictly refused to participate in debates, even with his rival from the UNITA party.  

Costa Junior is the son of a former UNITA fighter and he himself has been a member of the movement since he was a teenager. After Angola's independence in 1975, Junior studied electrical engineering in Portugal.

Upon returning to Angola, he became involved in the party, became the party's spokesman, and eventually took over as UNITA president.

"I still attribute the best chances of winning the election to the incumbent," Vines said.

"Lourenco has the combined strength of the MPLA party behind him," Vines said, "which has ruled the country uninterruptedly since independence from Portugal in 1975."

"These state resources — be it money or manpower, in the form of state employees — have been used for decades by the MPLA for its own purposes, including during the election campaign," Mozambican lawyer Borges Nhamirre said.

Risk of election-related violence

According to Nhamirre, who just published his research with the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) about the potential for violence, mass rigging could be a trigger.

"The first and most likely scenario is that the MPLA wins the elections by manipulating the electoral and judicial institutions. This could spark a popular uprising that could lead to postelection violence," Nhamirre said, adding in his research that the second, less-likely scenario is a UNITA victory that could lead to some conservative groups within the MPLA refusing to transfer power.

He said there needed to be a transparent election process to prevent violence.

"Let people participate in the counting. Let people observe the elections! Don't just serve them a result they don't know how it came about, like a bad meal prepared in secret," Nhamirre said.

This article was originally written in Portuguese.