Keeping mum

For months, Belarus has been rife with rumors and speculation about an upcoming devaluation of its currency, the ruble. This week, those rumors became reality as the government devalued the ruble by 36 percent, fixing it at 4.93 to the US dollar.

It was a rude awakening for most Belarusians, who had previously been told by the government that such a devaluation of its currency was out of the question. Now that it's happened though, people are packing the grocery stores and hoarding staples like salt, sugar, and matches. Some are buying appliances and furniture in bulk because of fears the currency the lose more of its value.

Belarusian finance expert Sergej Tschalyj says the average monthly wage in the country will sink from about 350 euro ($500) to 200 euro, and that there is hardly any foreign currency available from exchange points. The official rate of exchange also differs significantly with the exchange rate than can be found on the black market.

Protests around the corner?

Despite some serious penny pinching for the average Belarusian, if the people are dissatisfied with the way things are going then they are only expressing it in the privacy of their own homes. Opposition leader Jurij Chodyko things the people are too lethargic to take the protests to the streets.

"What does freedom or democracy matter to people when they are worried about how fast their wallets are shrinking?" said Chodyko, who founded the group Belarusian People's Front.

According to Chodyko, anything resembling the Arab Spring - where the constant pressure from protests has in some cases led to regimes toppling in the Arab world - isn't possible in Belarus. It's not just the power of the government or the weakness of the opposition, either. Chodyko says it has more to do with the politics of the last few decades, which has got people used to only caring for their own well-being. They don't make the connection between the collective interests of society and improving their own living conditions.

Belarusian sociologist Alexsander Sosnow sees hope that the Belarusians could take to the streets, but thinks things will simply have to get worse.

"It could come to that if the current situation became at least twice as bad as it is now," Sosnow said.

Avoiding reform

Many observers compare the situation in Belarus today with the situation there in 1991. What began as widespread economic problems 20 years ago, eventually led to Belarusian independence.

But Sosnow says that the protests back then were in reaction to the Perestroika, the political movement designed to reform communism but likely contributed to its downfall. As the government back then became weaker and weaker due to the reforms, the will of the people got stronger and stronger.

Now, though, there is no reason for the government to make a change.

"As long as people are willing to tighten their belts, the government is going to continue to avoid reform," Sosnow said.

Any kind of reform would likely lead to regime collapse in Belarus, but even the threat of repression from the government keeps most people off the streets.

EU turns up the pressure

The government in Minsk is cracking down on the opposition harder than they have in years. Several hundred people were arrested in December during protests following presidential elections, which re-elected President Alexander Lukashenko, has been accused of rigging.

In response, he and other Belarusian officials have been declared persona non grata in the European Union, and sanctions against the regime were imposed by the EU at the beginning of the week.

Eighty people, including Lukashenko, had already seen bank accounts frozen and EU travel restrictions imposed, and that list has now been expanded by 13 people.

Author: Polina Ptizyna, Markian Ostaptschuk / mz

Editor: Nicole Goebel