The roots of the Thai crisis

Thaksin took up the cause of the poorer sections of Thai society, in particular in the rural areas, against the country's traditional elites: the rich people in Bangkok, the military, the royal palace.

The gap between rich and poor had widened with economic growth; but at the same time, absolute poverty also became less dramatic in the villages. Thaksin's rise and the revolt by his supporters, the Red Shirts, is therefore not an uprising of the poor, but a movement driven by new aspirations, says Paul Chambers, a political scientist and expert on Thailand at Heidelberg University.

"I think what has changed is the realization by these rural poor that things can change for the better. And that Thaksin and policies that someone like him proposes can bring about a better life for these people."

Feeling cheated

But these socio-economic factors are more the backdrop to the political events that took place over the last decade. Thaksin's supporters feel cheated because their hero was deposed in a military coup in 2006 and had to flee the country, accused of corruption.

After another election victory by Thaksin's supporters, their government was again toppled in 2008, this time largely by week-long street protests of the so-called Yellow Shirts, supporters of the traditional elites. Subsequently, the incumbent Abhisit Vejjajiva administration was cobbled together with the help of influential military officers.

Paul Chambers explains, "the military and perhaps elements of the royalists, anti-Thaksin groups were able to get rid of a pro-Thaksin government and put in place an anti-Thaksin government – like a silent coup, and in fact that is what Thaksin and several others called this situation: it was like the second coup! Today you see the Red Shirts rioting because they are very angry about the fact that this Abhisit government came to office in such a very underhanded manner."

The Red Shirts' campaign

Had the elites believed they had finally got rid of Thaksin, they were to be proved wrong. "Thaksin and many members of his current Puea Thai party have a lot of money," says Chambers. "They have been using that money for telecommunications, local radios, gatherings of Red Shirts to build up support for Thaksin to come back."

This movement culminated in thousands of Red Shirts occupying the Rajprasong business area of Bangkok. Their week-long campaign did have an impact: Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva offered early elections. But when the deal seemed already done, hardliners among the Red Shirts suddenly came up with new demands.

Paul Chambers suspects others are involved as well. "Of course I don't have evidence of this, but I get the impression that there are some others who might want this to continue," he says. "Like Thaksin! I think that it is in his interest to make this government look like a bloody dictatorship. If the soldiers shoot a lot of people, he can go to the international community and say: 'Look, I am like Aung San Suu Kyi!'"

But Chambers believes the state will finally prevail in an armed confrontation. And the Red Shirts will possibly even lose what they had already gained through their protest movement: early elections on November 14. Says Chambers, "I think the Red Shirts miscalculated."

Author: Thomas Baerthlein
Editor: Grahame Lucas