Agenda-setter or freak show?

Last weekend, Donald Trump took to Twitter to tell his 3.4 million followers that he intended to "be very nice and highly respectful of the other candidates" in Thursday's first Republican primary debate. The nine other presidential hopefuls who will join him on the stage in Cleveland are well advised to take Trump's intention to play nice with a grain of salt.

That is because until now Trump has done exactly the opposite. He lashed out at other candidates; for instance, tweeting an offensive comment about Jeb Bush's wife who comes from Mexico. He later deleted the post. Trump also made headlines with outrageous remarks about immigrants and about former Republican presidential candidate and war hero John McCain.

Boon for Fox News and Facebook

The outsized role of Donald Trump in the early campaign so far coupled with the fact that the 2016 Republican presidential primary field is the largest in modern US history begs the question how useful this mid-summer debate with ten participants really is.

"At this point in the primary season - a full six months away from anyone voting on any candidate - the whole debate is a freak show, no matter how many candidates are on the stage," said Jennifer Mercieca, a political rhetoric scholar at Texas A&M University.

The debate is designed to generate audience and traffic for Fox News and Facebook, who will host it, and enable candidates to make headlines, which will then allow them to raise more money for their campaigns, noted Mercieca.

Entertainment, not democracy

"A ten person debate, especially one with Donald Trump and some of the other controversial Republican candidates, will be a great ratings draw," said Mercieca. "It will be great television. Twitter will love it. But, this debate is more about entertainment than it is about the democratic process."

Adam Seth Levine, a political communication expert at Cornell University, offers a different assessment of the debate. He agrees that it is very early in the primary season and that the format featuring ten candidates leaves very little room for substantial contributions from each candidate. But even with those constraints he believes the debate can still be helpful for candidates and potential voters.

Helping voters decide

Given that many voters are still unfamiliar with most candidates, Levine contends that the debate provides them with a good opportunity to weed out the ones they like from the ones that they do not. And since it is difficult for voters to judge a large pool of candidates on a myriad of potential issues, it is up to the candidates to help them along. That is why this debate is to a large extent "simply about agenda-setting," said Levine.

The candidates, he added, will therefore try to frame the terms of the debate in a way that is most beneficial to them, resonates with voters and hurts their opponents. Donald Trump has mastered the art of agenda-setting. His remarks on immigration have been picked up and amplified by the media over and over again, forcing not only all other candidates to take a stance on the issue, but making Trump's position the de-facto standard whereby voters judge his opponents.

Trump, master of agenda-setting

"In short, Trump's comments about immigration have had a huge agenda-setting effect," said Levine. "And of course that doesn't necessarily favor Jeb Bush, as many Republican primary voters do not agree with his comprehensive overhaul [of immigration law, the ed]."

More than that, if there is one candidate who has the most to lose in this debate it is Jeb Bush. With his name and background he is, Trump aside, not only the most prominent Republican candidate in the field, he also is extremely well-funded and does not need a debate this early to attract new donors.

Bush better come prepped

What's more, Bush as the Republican establishment's favorite candidate, will be the preferred attack target for the party's right wingers who will try to frame him as not conservative enough and push him to the right. Bush's challenge will be to avoid a verbal slugfest with Trump on immigration or other hot button issues and to steer the debate to topics that are more favorable to him - like the economy.

"If I were on Bush's team, then I would make sure that he had lots of 30 second responses prepared drawing distinctions between his positions and the rest of the members of the field," said Mercieca. "If anyone needs to have those prepped, it is Bush."