Thai authorities send a tough and a conciliatory message to the Red Shirts

Speaking on TV on Sunday, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva made it clear that the government is determined to take back the Rajaprasong shopping area in Bangkok from the protesters, although a previous attempt failed and altogether 27 people have already died in violence between the demonstrators and security forces.

Abhisit said, "from now on, what the government will do may risk clashes and losses, but the government knows what it's doing. What needs to be done must be done."

Protestors undeterred

However, there have been no signs yet that the protestors are intimidated by his rhetoric. On the contrary, they keep stressing that they are ready to fight, as one woman put it:

"We must stick together now. If they come, we'll hold strong. Some of our supporters have left the area briefly, but they'll all come back to fight."

Abhisit promises "road map"

On the other hand, the prime minister told parliament in Bangkok on Monday that he was also working on a "road map" for a peaceful resolution of the conflict, without specifying when it would be unveiled. Abhisit stressed there needed to be a "collective solution" with inputs from different parties and groups.

"It is a constructive approach", says Jim Della-Giacoma, Southeast Asia Project Director of the International Crisis Group (ICG), "and something that we'll welcome if he is able to involve all the sides to this conflict.

"I think the roadmap needs to look at the long term and realize that changes in the political structure, even in the Thai constitution, may be required to address some of the concerns that have been aired. In the medium term, we see that there probably will need to be elections to refresh the parliament, but we don't see that to be too quick."

Both sides have shown some flexibility as far as the election date is concerned. Most experts agree that the issue of constitutional reforms is even more crucial, though, in order to avoid new elections simply triggering a fresh round of street protests by the defeated side.

International mediation proposed

The International Crisis Group has warned that Thailand risks sliding into an "undeclared civil war", as the political system has "broken down". It has advised the conflict parties to accept international mediation.

As Jim Della-Giacoma explains, "of course it would be much better if the Thai political groupings were able to solve this problem themselves. But after years of conflict we've seen it in recent weeks descend into violence. And we fear that there needs to be some extra effort, perhaps facilitated by some international people or groups, to cool heads and to bring this conflict back into the realm of political discussion, rather than fighting on the streets."

The ICG has suggested the name of Timor Leste President Jose Ramos Horta as a possible mediator.

Author: Thomas Baerthlein
Editor: Grahame Lucas