Terror threat morphs in Mozambique

Mozambique's al-Shabab militia, whose name comes from the Arabic for youth and which has no relation to Somalia's al-Shabab terrorist group, has been carrying out brutal attacks in the nation's most northern province, Cabo Delgado, since 2017. 

The Islamic militants have now taken control of entire areas of Cabo Delgado and have expanded their operations inside and outside of Mozambique, according to a new joint study by the Geneva-based Global Initiative Against Transnational Crime and the Hanns Seidel Foundation in Germany.

This comes despite the deployment of troops from Rwanda and the Southern African regional bloc, SADC, to help Mozambique's military fight the armed uprising, Julian Rademeyer, one of the study's lead authors, told DW.

The study, "Insurgency, Illicit Markets and Corruption: The Cabo Delgado Conflict and Its Regional Implications" was published on Thursday.

Surge in attacks

In the past week alone, extremists have attacked at least eight villages in Cabo Delgado, completely burning down five of them on the border to Tanzania, the Catholic Denis Hurley Peace Institute told Germany's Catholic news agency, KNA.

According to Rademeyer, the study's authors are "already seeing some of the elements of al-Shabab scattering to other provinces and renewing attacks and violence."

The group is said to be responsible for recent attacks in Niassa province, which borders Cabo Delgado to the west, as well as in Nampula province to the south.

In addition, al-Shabab has strengthened its networks outside of Mozambique, said Rademeyer, , a organized crime expert at the Global Initiative Against Transnational Crime. He said this could have long-term consequences for other countries in southern African region. 

The group has links to forces allied with the so-called Islamic State in the Democratic Republic of Congo and has also recruited fighters from neighbors Tanzania and South Africa, he said.

Allowing criminal groups to flourish

By increasing the general lawlessness of Cabo Delgado, al-Shabab's gains in the province have spurred the growth of illicit trafficking through northern Mozamique. 

"Cabo Delgado province serves as a key economic corridor and has historically for hundreds of years," Rademeyer said. 

"But it also serves as a key corridor for illicit trafficking flows," he said, especially for the smuggling of heroin and amphetamines. 

Heroin comes from Afghanistan through Iran to northern Mozambique and onward to neighboring South Africa, the largest consumer market for heroin in the southern African region and a major transit point for trafficking to Europe and the United States.

Cocaine, primarily originating Brazil, also passes through northern Mozambique to Australia.

On top of this, people, illegally logged timber, wildlife products, precious stones and gold move through Cabo Delgado.

Robbery and extortion

According to study, al-Shabab itself only participates directly in a small way in the illegal trafficking.

Rather, the group finances itself by demanding protection money from local businesses and looting cash, weapons and goods during attacks. The terrorist group also raise funds through kidnapping and demanding ransoms for people's release.

Rumors abound that al-Shabab harvests organs from people it captures in attacks and then trades these on the international market. 

The study found absolutely no evidence of this, Rademeyer said. Rather, he said, the rumors are probably an example of how disinformation spreads within the conflict zone and how this disinformation can be used as a propaganda tool by Mozambique's government.

Empowering the forgotten population

To create lasting peace, the government needs to invest in local development and strengthen the forgotten civilian population, the study recommends.

Martin Abang Ewi, from South Africa's Institute for Security Studies in South Africa, told DW that he agrees with the findings. 

"The security situation in Cabo Delgado remains very fragile and dire," Ewi said. 

About 734,000 people were internally displaced in Cabo Delgabo, Niassa and Nampula provinces as of December 2020, according to the UN's humanitarian affairs coordination agency, OCHA, and 1.1 million are severely food insecure.

"The humanitarian situation is ... getting worse, [and] the government is not capable of meeting the needs of people on the ground," Ewi said. 

The World Food Program, which is the only agency providing food to people internally displaced in Cabo Delgado, is "overwhelmed," he said.

Another approach to solving the conflict is for the international community to make a greater contribution, particularly in the fight against terror, Ewi said. 

Mozambique's government has too little capacity to do this on its own, he said.

This article was translated from German.