Political violence

Not much surprises Jenni Williams these days. The human rights activist from Zimbabwe has seen a lot in her 49 years, perhaps too much. As the founder of the women's organization WOZA, she has been arrested, humiliated and even tortured for her opinions and activities in the past.

Over the next months, she fears the situation for activists like herself and ordinary citizens will become even worse as the country prepares for new elections. Zimbabwe's Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai wants citizens to go to the polls in 2012; the country's long-serving president, Robert Mugabe, would like to see them held even earlier.

"The word 'election' and the date it's uttered, it means persecution," Williams, who during the last elections in 2008 spent several weeks in jail, told Deutsche Welle.

She has seen a growing presence of youth militia groups restricting the public's movements, soldiers and police implementing informal curfews and preventing people from gathering in twos or threes, warning them not to talk about politics.

"In these last weeks, we know they try to disallow meetings of church groups or burial societies because they're just scared that any gathering will mean that people will start to debate issues that are close to their daily life," she said.

Fragile stability

With 'they' Williams is referring to Mugabe and his ZANU-PF party. Mugabe, an authoritarian leader who has been in power since the country's independence in 1980, joined a unity government with opposition leader Tsvangirai after the disputed 2008 poll.

During those elections, his regime cracked down violently on opposition supporters and human rights activists. Only after intense international pressure and mediation by the South African Development Community (SADC) did Mugabe agree to the power-sharing agreement with Tsvangirai's Movement for a Democratic Change (MDC).

However, Mugabe has made no secret of his distaste for the arrangement and Tsvangirai has complained about a lack of co-operation from ZANU-PF members.

While the relationship has been rocky, it has led to a period of relative stability and strong economic growth. The country moved toward dollarization in 2009, which allowed Zimbabweans to abandon their own currency and brought world-record hyperinflation under control.

In July 2008, the inflation rate was recorded at 231,000,000 percent, making the Zimbabwean dollar almost worthless. Bills of Z$100 billion were printed by the government.

The government estimates growth rates of 9.3 percent this year, the same as in 2010.

But despite the growth, many ordinary Zimbabweans have seen little improvement to their lives. The United Nations Human Development Index, a comparative measure of life expectancy, literacy, education and standards of living for countries worldwide, ranks Zimbabwe in last place.

Economists fear that ongoing political turmoil, likely to increase in the run-up to elections, could slow down economic growth rates. The International Monetary Fund has warned that growth could fall to 5.5 percent.

Reforms, then elections

Activists from civil society groups are calling for a firm timeline for the writing of a new constitution and holding a referendum on the document. They want the constitution to allow for more participation by all levels of society in the governing of the country.

In June, members of the SADC at a summit in South Africa called on the Zimbabwean government to create an environment conducive to peace, security and free political activity before any elections are held. The demand dealt a blow to Mugabe's plans to fast-track the elections.

Analysts also worry that if constitutional and political reforms don't come before the vote is held, the result could be renewed political violence.

"If this constitution remains the same that it is now, it's hard to imagine there won't be intimidation," Judy Smith-Höhn, an analyst at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, told Deutsche Welle. "Many of the conditions that led to the violence in 2008 have not been dealt with adequately."

Torture camps

In addition, a recent BBC report on alleged torture camps operating in the country's rich Marange diamond fields has raised overall tensions.

Raw materials such as diamonds are responsible for a majority of government revenues and Zimbabwe has only been allowed to export diamonds from the Marange fields since June.

The report said the EU is pushing to allow some diamonds which had been banned in 2009 to again be sold on world markets, writing in an internal document that two mines in the area now meet international standards.

But anonymous witnesses report that forced laborers have been abused by Mugabe's security forces, suffering severe beatings and sexual assault.

"It is the place of torture where sometimes miners are unable to walk on account of the beatings," a victim who was released from the main camp in February told the BBC.

According to the report, the police and military recruit civilians to illegally dig for diamonds for them. Those workers are taken to the camps for punishment if they demand too large a share of the profits or are caught mining for themselves.

The country's mining ministry has dismissed the allegations as lies and propaganda, but activist Williams said she has no doubt about the existence of such camps.

"In several places around the country we know there are torture camps," she said. "Immediately after an election or referendum day is confirmed those camps will then start doing their serious business of trampling upon the rights of ordinary citizens and making sure they torture human rights defenders."

Another complication

Last week, one of Zimbabwe's leading political power brokers was killed in a house fire, further complicating the pre-election situation.

Sixty-two-year-old Solomon Mujuru, a close confidante of President Mugabe and seen as a moderate ZANU-PF member, died after a candle he had lit after a power outage caused a fire at his farmhouse southwest of the capital Harare.

"His death has implications not only for the succession debate within ZANU-PF but has implications on negotiations over the next few months," Brian Raftopoulos, a veteran Zimbabwe political analyst, told Britain's Telegraph newspaper.

One fear is that Mujuru's death opens the way for Emmerson Mnangagwa to succeed the 87-year-old president. Mnangagwa is accused of having organized much of the political violence that has plagued the country since independence in 1980.

Author: Adrian Kriesch, Kyle James
Editor: Rob Mudge