Taiwan: What's next after Tsai's meeting with McCarthy?

After Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy met in the United States, all sides are closely monitoring how China would respond to the landmark discussions.

On Thursday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry condemned the high-profile meeting, saying it seriously infringed upon Beijing's sovereignty and territorial integrity. 

China claims democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, and opposes any form of official contact between Taipei and foreign governments.

Taiwan said Thursday it had spotted a Chinese aircraft carrier, the Shandong, 200 nautical miles off its east coast. 

Taiwanese Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-Cheng said the island's forces were monitoring the situation and that there was no sign of aircraft takeoffs or landings on the carrier.

Chinese authorities also launched a three-day special joint patrol operation to conduct "on-site inspections" of ships in parts of the Taiwan Strait.

Taipei said it would not cooperate and urged Taiwanese vessels to not comply with inspection requests.

"If the mainland side insists on taking one-sided actions, it will create obstacles to normal exchanges between the two sides. We will be forced to take corresponding measures," Taiwan's Maritime and Ports Bureau said in a statement.

Beijing less aggressive this time around

Lev Nachman, a political scientist at National Chengchi University (NCCU) in Taiwan, said Beijing has so far been less aggressive in its response to the Tsai-McCarthy meeting, unlike its reaction to then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taipei last August.

The PLA then carried out week-long drills around the democratic island, showcasing its military capabilities by shooting missiles over Taiwan and flying fighter aircraft across the median line in the Taiwan Strait — an unofficial border between the two sides.

"McCarthy didn't come to Taiwan, so China doesn't need to have a Pelosi-style reaction," said Nachman.

Wenti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University (ANU), pointed to the ongoing visit to Beijing by French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Any aggressive move by China now could have an impact on its relations with Europe, he noted. 

A major Chinese military response to the meeting, however, appears unlikely, particularly as former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou is currently visiting China. 

Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou is also currently visiting China, mitigating the threat of a major Chinese military response.

Ma said he wants to help ease mistrust and restore peace across the Taiwan Strait, and it might prove counterproductive should Beijing squander this opportunity to improve cross-Strait ties. 

"Taiwanese presidents' transit stopover in the US happens every two to three years, but a visit to China by a former Taiwanese leader only happens once every 60 years," Sung told DW. 

"It's not in Beijing's interest to use serious force to achieve a slight discount of Tsai's point-scoring opportunities in the US when it might tank the rare message of conciliation between both sides of the Taiwan Strait. That would be a very bad deal for Beijing," he added. 

A win-win for all countries involved?

Despite China being irked by the meeting, Nachman described its outcome as a "win-win" for Beijing, Taipei and Washington.

For Beijing, it could mean there won't be another high-profile visit to Taiwan by a senior US official anytime soon, and for Taiwan, it marked the first meeting between a sitting Taiwanese president and US House speaker on US soil.

"Beijing doesn't want more high-level foreign visits to Taiwan, and Taiwan also knows they don't have the desire to deal with another Chinese response that's similar to the one last August," Nachman said.

As for McCarthy, the meeting gives him a chance to show that, like Pelosi, he too is willing to stand up to Chinese pressure on Taiwan.

"The Republican Party wants to see McCarthy match Pelosi's level of intensity with US-Taiwan relations," Nachman underlined. 

'Isn't as serious as Pelosi's trip'

Based on China's reaction so far, Nachman believes the Tsai-McCarthy meeting isn't as serious an issue for Beijing as Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.

"What Taiwan is facing now isn't great but it's nowhere near what we saw within 12 hours after Pelosi left," said Nachman, adding that Pelosi's long history of advocating for human rights in China makes her a "big thorn in Beijing's side." 

"If Beijing describes the meeting between Tsai and McCarthy as threatening, Pelosi's visit to Taiwan would qualify as a dire provocation," he concluded. 

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru