Toothless tiger

Syria's opposition in exile is meeting in Antalya, Turkey this week to voice their support for the protests against the regime of President Bashar Assad. But they are also seeking ways of coordinating the fragmented opposition movement.

The political scope of Syrian dissidents living in exile range from Islamists to human rights activists and Kurdish resistance groups all the way to former major players in the regime, such as Assad's brother Rifaat and the former Vice President Abdel Halim Khaddam.

The opposition's weapon of choice is videos recorded on mobile phones during protests in Syria against the Assad regime and then circulated via Internet. Generation Facebook is also a spurring force for Syria's protest movement, as it was in other Arab nations. But its problems are extensive. Authorities have shut down electricity and networks and forced activists like Rami Nakleh out of the country, in his case to Beirut, Lebanon.

"My goal is to shed light on what is going on in Syria now," Nakleh said. "We know that if this regime managed to do anything in the dark, they would commit the worst crimes you can ever imagine."

Leadership lacks a face

Unlike in Egypt, where millions of people took to the streets of Cairo, the opposition in Syria consists of mere tens of thousands. They are rurally structured, unorganized and mostly lack an intellectual elite - and are to a large extent unknown abroad.

Joshua Landis from the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, in the US, said this fragmented structure makes it difficult for the resistance to achieve their goals, adding that the The activists are young, in their 20s and early 30s.

"These are the people who are driving this revolution," Landis said. "They are faceless, which is good, because the government cannot arrest them. But it's bad because the West has nobody to talk to and Syrians most importantly do not know what they will get if they turn against their government. They need to see a leadership."

Many Syrians fear the post-Assad era. This keeps them from joining the demonstrations against oppression and surveillance.

Not another Iraq

Theocracy or civil war: this is what minorities and the middle-classes in the major cities Aleppo and Damascus fear. The military and secret service have isolated the protest centers. Authorities are consistently keeping foreign journalists out. This impedes any clear insight into the makeup and strength of the opposition. George Jabbour, a Syrian political expert, is skeptical of the opposition's power.

"I think some of them, people who are interested in promoting human rights and democracy, are well-armed and have their own agendas," Jabbour said. "But some of them are disgruntled politicians who have been sidelined by the regime."

Khaddam, for example, was a pillar of the system as Assad's vice president. But six years ago he had a falling out with the president and went into exile. Now Khaddam is calling on the West to intervene like in Libya.

"We need intervention from abroad," Khaddam said. "A regime that kills its own people has no right to exist. These are enemies of the people."

There were people like Khaddam in Iraq as well, but they did little good in the country's political development after the fall of Saddam Hussein. Hundreds of thousands of exiled Syrians and the opposition within the country don't want a repeat of the Iraqi example.

Sitting tight in the driver's seat

They can't, however, expect any help from the West, whose sanctions don't faze Syria's leadership in the least. The opposition is calling first and foremost for an end to violence, imprisonment and torture.

Human rights activist Anas al-Abdah said there are then five demands: lifting the emergency rule, releasing all political prisoners, enabling the return of Syrian exiles, as well as the establishment of new parties and association law.

"And number five, which is the main demand, is to set up a date for presidential and parliamentary elections," al-Abdah said.

The resistance to the uncompromising regime has already cost the opposition over 1,000 dead, with 10,000 are in prison. In two-and-a-half months, the Syrian opposition has hardly come any closer to its goals.

Hilal Kashan, a professor of political science at the American University in Beirut, said he is not optimistic due to the lack of organizational structures in Syria's protest movement.

"Over the past 50 years, successive governments have destroyed the civil society," Kashan said. "What we see is largely spontaneous in Syria. There is no leadership so that's why I don't see an opposition movement stepping in and taking over."

In the medium term, Assad is sitting firmly in the driver's seat - thanks to the ruthlessness of his system and the passiveness of the international community - and at the expense of the people and their courageous but powerless resistance.

Author: Ulrich Leidholdt / sac
Editor: Martin Kuebler