Civil war

Gernot Erler is deputy parliamentary leader of Germany's Social Democrats and an expert on security and defense issues. Deutschlandfunk radio's Dirk-Oliver Heckmann talked to him about the chances of success for the Arab League observer mission in Syria.

Dirk-Oliver Heckmann: Around 70,000 anti-regime protesters took to the streets of Homs on Tuesday, obviously buoyed by the arrival of the Arab League observer mission. Do you think their presence will provide further impetus to the protesters' cause?

Gernot Erler: The protesters want to give the observers a clear picture of what is going on, of the repression and violence, and they want to get across their demands and hopes. That's what the observer mission is supposed to take on board and ultimately to oversee the withdrawal of the Syrian army from the towns as promised by President Assad and to monitor the release of political prisoners.

The head of the mission is a general from Sudan, a country that is not exactly a beacon of upholding human rights. Is he the right man for the mission?

That was a decision made by the Arab League, but we're already seeing that the mission is splitting up into different groups so hopefully that will lead to a degree of autonomy of the individual groups. That, at least, is what the international community is hoping for. After all, the West is relying on the Arab League to resolve the situation given that there's otherwise been very little in terms of international action.

What else could and should have been done?

At the very least, the UN Security Council should have shown a bit more involvement, but, unfortunately, the resolution that has been tabled is being blocked by two veto-wielding members: China and Russia. The Security Council's hands are tied and that's what is so frustrating which means all eyes and hopes are on the Arab League.

According to UN estimates, some 5,000 people have been killed in the crackdown on protests. The anti-regime protesters have also carried out attacks, the latest incident was a double-suicide attack that left 40 people dead. Are we in the West painting too rosy a picture of the opposition?

The events surrounding that suicide attack are dubious. The government claims al-Qaeda was behind it and says it's proof that the uprising's aim is not to overthrow the regime and install a democratically elected government but that the protests are being organized and steered from abroad and that Islamist terrorists are responsible. The opposition, on the other hand, claims that Bashar al-Assad's regime has orchestrated the events to make it appear like that. I would be very careful to say that the suicide attack is proof of the opposition's willingness to resort to violence.

However we have seen the emergence of the Free Syrian Army, we've seen army defections and fierce clashes between the deserters and the Syrian forces. We are very close to a civil war.

There are some here in Germany who say that negotiations are the only way to resolve the situation and that Assad could be willing to engage in talks. What's your impression?

In my opinion, which also appears to be what the international community thinks, Bashar al-Assad is playing a tactical game, one step forward, two steps back. Yes, he's allowed the observer mission into the country but at the same time he's talking of an international conspiracy, of an attempt by Islamist terrorists to gain control over Syria and that's what he will also tell the observer mission. I don't think it will be easy to persuade the opposition to enter into a dialogue given the violent crackdown.

The US State Department has warned Assad that the United States will take further steps if he doesn't cooperate with the Arab League mission. How likely is a military escalation in the region?

That's exactly the question: what do those steps entail? I think the Americans have been deliberately vague to increase the pressure on Assad. As far as I can tell there are currently no concrete plans for any type of military intervention. Clearly under international law the UN has the wherewithal to deal with the situation, but as I've already pointed out, there is little to no movement there. That means there is no international framework for any type of intervention at the moment, something the US State Department knows very well.

The conflict appears to have reached our shores too. The Syrian human rights activist Ferhad Ahma, a member of Germany's Green party, was attacked and beaten in his Berlin apartment. The Greens claim Syria's secret service was behind the assault. How serious is this development?

It definitely has to be investigated. If the allegations prove to be correct it would seriously harm the bilateral ties between Germany and Syria and that should be clear to the regime in Syria.

Interview: Dirk-Oliver Heckmann, DLF / rm

Editor: Sean Sinico