Burma and the bomb

It has been the subject of much speculation over the last few months but on Monday Burmese defectors seemed to confirm fears that the country's military regime has collaborated in recent years with North Korea and Russia to develop a reactor capable of producing one nuclear bomb a year by 2014.

Based on the testimonies of two defectors from the Burmese regime, including one army officer and a book keeper for a trading company with close links to the military, the report - the result of a two-year investigation into Burma's nuclear ambitions by two Australian investigators - claimed Burma is excavating uranium in 10 locations and has two uranium plants in operation to refine uranium into "yellowcake," the fissile material for nuclear weapons.

The report, published in the Bangkok Post's Spectrum magazine Sunday after a similar article appeared in the Sydney Morning Herald, includes a claim by the army defector that Russian technicians are already "teaching plutonium reprocessing" at an embryonic plutonium reprocessing plant in Naung Laing, central Burma.

According to the sources, Burma signed a memorandum of understanding with Russia's atomic energy agency in May 2007 to build a 10-megawatt light-water reactor using uranium.

Suspicions about Burma and North Korea escalated last month after a US Navy destroyer began tracking a suspect North Korean ship reportedly heading for Burma under UN sanctions over Pyongyang's nuclear tests. The Kang Nam I, which had made previous trips to Burma, was shadowed at sea by the US navy until it reversed course. It remains unclear what its freight was, and US officials were reluctant to board it, fearing it might be an empty decoy designed to embarrass Washington.

The Associated Press later quoted a South Korean intelligence expert as saying satellite images suggested the Kang Nam I was carrying equipment for a nuclear program and Scud-type missiles.

Dubious dealings between Burma and North Korea

Korean media reported in July that the Burmese military had been doing business with a North Korean company that specializes in nuclear technology, purchasing sophisticated dual-use equipment after a secret visit by senior Burmese officials to North Korea late last year.

Meanwhile, authorities in Japan last month arrested three men on suspicion of trying to illicitly ship dual-use technology to Burma via Malaysia. Workers from the North Korean Namchongang Trading Corp., which was recently blacklisted by the United Nations for its involvement in Pyongyang's nuclear program, are believed to have conducted work in Burma.

A report in the New York Times last month also claimed that a series of large tunnels were being built in Burma, adding credence to claims that the Burmese junta had started work on secret nuclear facilities.

Recent reports in Burmese exile media have spoken of a military pact late last year between Burma and North Korea, including the construction of underground installations, but the existence of such a pact has yet to be publicly confirmed

The United States was said to be troubled by the possibility of nuclear ties between North Korea and Burma, with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton saying she was "very concerned about North Korea and recent reports" that its Stalinist regime might be supplying Burma's military government with nuclear technology.

"We know that there are also growing concerns about military cooperation between North Korea and Burma, which we take seriously," she told reporters during a visit to Thailand in July. "It would be destabilizing for the region. It would pose a direct threat to Burma's neighbors."

Questions over validity of claims muddies waters

Finding any hard evidence of Burma's nuclear ambitions is proving difficult and experts are increasingly cautious about publicly speculating on the issue.

Deutsche Welle talked to a Burma expert based in London, under conditions of anonymity, who pointed out that many of the sources quoted on the topic were creating doubts on the validity of the claims.

"What we have are defectors talking to journalists and that immediately raises questions about what their agenda may be," he said. "You have to consider what kind of country Burma is and how the government could possibly afford to pursue such technology when the country is in such a poor state. This and the spiraling speculation doesn’t help in the pursuit of concrete details.

"Burma, like many countries in the 1950s, was interested in developing nuclear technology but for the country now to be suspected of pursuing a weapons program is a giant leap," he added.

"Many of these claims have been based on the fact that it has been revealed that North Korea and Burma now have this relationship and that a lot of questions have been raised, and not answered, by this. Then again, Burma has agreed to adhere to UN sanctions on North Korea so it's a very muddled and controversial picture."

Mike Green, senior advisor and resident Asia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, told DW that he believed North Korea's reputation for proliferation suggested the possibility of a nuclear partnership with Burma.

"Given past North Korean threats to transfer its capability and the precedent set with its co-operation with Syria on its nuclear reactor, I think it is a possibillty that should not be dismissed, though I am not aware of any smoking gun," he said.

IAEA expects confirmation from countries going nuclear

When asked about the possibility of Burma becoming a nuclear power, a spokesperson for the International Atomic Energy Agency told Deutsche Welle: "Myanmar (Burma) is party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and has concluded a safeguards agreement with the IAEA with a small quantities protocol, which is designed for states that have little or no nuclear material and no nuclear material in facilities. As such, it would be expected to inform the IAEA no later than six months prior to operating a nuclear facility. If it were to operate such a facility, it would be subject to IAEA safeguards inspections, like similar facilities in other states. Any amendment to this protocol would grant the IAEA expanded rights of access to information and sites.

"Myanmar (Burma) is also participating in the IAEA Technical Cooperation program, receiving assistance related to the application of nuclear science and technology for health, agriculture and other uses, and to strengthen radiation safety," the spokesperson added.

Russia, which has a known nuclear relationship with Burma, cited these criteria when it defended its relations with Burma saying it did not see a conflict between helping the Asian nation build a civilian nuclear program and the Kremlin's public commitment to nuclear non-proliferation.

"Our cooperation with Burma is absolutely legitimate and in full compliance with our obligations under the NPT or IAEA requirements," said Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko in an interview with the RIA Novosti news agency.

One of the Burmese defectors speaking in Spectrum magazine said that Burma's claims of non-military nuclear ambitions are nonsense.

"They say it's to produce medical isotopes for health purposes in hospitals," the civilian defector speaking under the alias Tin Min told Spectrum. "How many hospitals in Burma have nuclear science? Burma can barely get electricity up and running. It's nonsense."

Author: Nick Amies

Editor: Rob Mudge