Support for Social Democrats Hits Historic Low
January 25, 2003
An opinion poll held by Germany's second public broadcaster ZDF shows backing for Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's Social Democrats (SPD) has fallen to 25 percent, the lowest figure in the poll's 26 year history. The historic dive in popularity is considered to be a signal to the government that the German people are growing tired of broken election promises and the party's unyielding drift.
The survey delivered further bad news to the SPD by showing that support for the Christian Democrat (CDU) opposition party and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Socialist Union (CSU) stood at 56 percent, while the environmentalist Greens scored 10 percent.
Iraq no longer a guarantee for votes
In recent campaign rally ahead of the Lower Saxony and Hesse elections on February 2nd elections, Schröder has been playing a familiar hand by using Germany's anti-war stance on Iraq to boost his party's flagging support. But with the economy floundering, unemployment rising and reversals on promised tax policies alienating the voters, the public don't seem to be impressed this time around.
The Iraq issue was a considerable factor in the SPD's narrow re-election in September last year but now public impatience with attempts to address problems closer to home may expose the fragility of the government away from international matters.
CDU senses widening control
The CDU's Angela Merkel, said that a predicted victory for her party would send an unmistakable challenge to the SPD and push the governing coalition to speed up and enlarge its plan for economic reform. Retaining Hesse and winning Lower Saxony would significantly strengthen the CDU's hold over the Bundesrat, the upper parliamentary chamber, where the states are represented.
The conservative opposition already holds a narrow majority in the Bundesrat but prizing Lower Saxony away from the Social Democrats would give the CDU/CSU another six votes in the parliamentary chamber, consolidating the CDU's position and adding to Schröder's woes by making it very difficult for the SPD to win in opposition-run states.
The message coming from the opposition is one of great confidence and a seemingly renewed passion for the fight. According to the party's leadership, a CDU/CSU victory would mean "there can be a different political game in Germany thanks to the CDU", said Merkel at the press conference. Roland Koch, the tough CDU premier of Hesse, added: "The message from the Bundesrat will be even stronger. The need to make compromises will be greater than ever."
Opposition eyes possible "Grand Coalition"
The opposition has grudgingly co-operated with Schröder's government since the election in which many CDU/CSU members feel they were "robbed" but their recent empowerment has triggered speculation that the conservatives may seize the waning fortunes of the SPD to push for a national "Grand Coalition" with government if things for the current red-green alliance continues to go badly.
However, they have their own problems. The opposition seems reticent about their own plans to boost Germany's chronically weak growth without breaching the deficit rules for the euro, or how they could improve relations with the US while still respecting popular antipathy to a conflict in Iraq.