Sticking points
November 18, 2014Time is running out. The international community and Iran have set a deadline of November 24 to come to an agreement in the dispute over Iran's nuclear program, a conflict that has dragged on for years.
From Tuesday, the P5+1 group - representatives from the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany - will once again meet with Iran for talks on a potential breakthrough. At this point, complete failure is highly unlikely. But the negotiating partners are still at arm's length from a final settlement. The compromise is snagged mainly on two major points and a few minor technical questions.
Uranium enrichment
Iran has about 19,000 centrifuges. About half of those are used for uranium enrichment, while the others are not yet in operation. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), about 1,000 centrifuges are newer models, and particularly efficient. Iran says these centrifuges are also part of its civilian nuclear program. In theory, however, they could be used to quickly produce uranium for a bomb.
Russia may be able to play a key role here. Just last week, Moscow and Tehran signed an agreement allowing Russia to build eight new nuclear plants in Iran. Russia will also provide the fuel rods to run the plants.
Iran apparently made concessions in the negotiations, with Tehran said to have conditionally agreed to ship a large part of its uranium supplies to Russia for storage.
Iranian uranium could possibly be enriched in Russia - under the watchful eyes of the IAEA. If Iran's nuclear material were to be stored elsewhere, the development of nuclear weapons would at least take considerably longer.
Lifting the sanctions
Iran wants to see all sanctions against it lifted immediately, while the international community wants to ensure that Iran won't develop the necessary skills to build a nuclear bomb. The negotiating partners must find a way between these two extremes to alternate, step by step, increasing concessions and the lifting of sanctions.
Due to great opposition on both sides, this point is particularly complicated. In Iran, those in conservative circles are against excessive concessions; for them, the lifting of sanctions is not going fast enough.
In addition, influential groups such as the Revolutionary Guard have even benefited from the West's sanctions. They now control large parts of the lucrative import and export business, along with border smuggling operations.
Israel and many Republican politicians in the US, however, have warned against a hasty relaxation of the sanctions.
The Arak factor
All sides have been able to come to an agreement on the future of the heavy water reactor in Arak. In contrast to other nuclear power plants, this type of reactor can be operated with unenriched natural uranium. Iran has large deposits of natural uranium, and so the use of such reactors is particularly attractive.
However, the operation of such reactors results in the production of more plutonium than other reactor types. This plutonium could, in turn, be used in the production of nuclear weapons. For this reason, the West has called for the reactor to be altered so that it will produce significantly less weapons-grade plutonium.
According to the terms in the Geneva agreement, Iran has since frozen its uranium enrichment program, altered the plans for its Arak reactor and approved stricter international controls of its nuclear facilities. In turn, some sanctions have been eased.
Controls by IAEA inspectors
There has also been some progress in one of the most controversial issues, that of the inspections by the IAEA. The international community has called for full, regular access to all of Iran's nuclear facilities, but has complained about a lack of transparency on Iran's part, including blocked inspections and secret nuclear facilities.
For that reason, the P5+1 has insisted on comprehensive and tighter controls of the Iranian nuclear program, even after a deal, to ensure that Tehran complies with all terms of the agreement.
In the interim deal, signed by the negotiating parties last November, Iran pledged more transparency. But to date, the IAEA claims it has not had unrestricted access to Iranian facilities.