Battle Lines Drawn
January 7, 2008
As things stand, Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Social Democratic (SPD) counterparts appear to be barely holding their fractious relationship together. Once the voters go to the polls in state elections this year, divisions over two key policy issues could see the brittle façade finally shatter.
The wrangling over a proposed national minimum wage, championed by the SPD, and a conservative-led plan to crackdown on juvenile crime are the issues likely to dominate the first elections, taking place in Hessen and Lower Saxony in late January and in Hamburg in February. Bavaria will vote in September. The results of the state elections could indicate how the general election in 2009 could play out.
The way each party makes its arguments and the results of the polls in relation to the issues may drive the current wedge between the coalition partners deeper, effectively splitting the government. The SPD have set the call for a national minimum wage at the heart of their campaign in the key state polls, much to the chagrin of the CDU.
Minimum wage central to SPD campaign
At the launch of the campaign, Peter Struck, the head of the SPD's parliamentary group, announced that the Social Democrats intended to harness the strong public backing for a minimum hourly wage of 7.50 euros ($10.77) in the three regional races.
"We will start petition drives during the state elections," Struck said in December. "Then the voters will have their say. We will make the state elections and the general election in 2009 into a referendum on the minimum wage."
The Social Democrats, who have been trailing the conservatives in the polls by around 10 points for several months, argue that Europe's biggest economy must ensure that wages are high enough to keep workers above the poverty level. Germany is one of the few countries in the EU without a national minimum wage, though it does have a series of industry-specific wage agreements.
Many leading conservative members, the chancellor included, have reacted angrily to the SPD's stance, saying that an across-the-board minimum wage would be a job killer, driving companies to eastern Europe and Asia where pay is lower.
Merkel favors industry control on wages
At the launch of the CDU election program on Saturday, the party ruled out a debate on the minimum wage, defiantly putting itself in opposition to the SPD's central election theme.
Merkel has said that the national minimum wage is "not the right answer" and has reiterated her support for the traditional practice of leaving unions and employers to negotiate wage levels in each industry.
Meanwhile, the conservatives seem intent on fighting the state elections on a law and order ticket, riling the SPD in the process.
The CDU leadership has called for stiffer penalties for juveniles convicted of violent crimes, proposing an increase in the maximum sentence for young people convicted of serious offences from 10 to 15 years.
The party has also called for a "warning shot" period of detention for those given probation for violent crimes and the introduction of boot camps where young offenders could be sent for re-education. Under the new CDU proposals, rules for deporting foreigners convicted of serious crimes would also be eased.
Conservatives react to upsurge in violent crime
"I think 'warning-shot arrests' [short periods in detention] and boot camps could indeed be a sensible supplement to current laws," Merkel said. "It could turn young people around so they do not wind up in prison."
The proposals, in line with those put forward by Roland Koch, the under-pressure CDU premier of Hesse, who is seeking a third term of office on Jan. 27, come after a spate of violent attacks across Germany.
"How much are we prepared to take from a small proportion of violent youths, who frequently have a foreign background," Koch said in an interview after the attack, which has been repeatedly broadcast on television.
"Something has to be done," Merkel added. "There is no point in delaying matters. It is unacceptable that many people do not dare ride the subway at night because they are afraid of violence...We need the feeling of personal security again in Germany.
"(The Social Democrats) cannot close their eyes to the fact that 43 percent of all violent crimes in Germany are committed by people who are under the age of 21 and that among them, nearly half are foreign-born youth," she said.
CDU accused of targeting foreigners
The Social Democrats have accused Koch and the conservatives of fuelling anti-foreigner sentiment in order to gain re-election and said existing laws were sufficient to punish violent offenders.
However, SPD leader Kurt Beck conceded that steps need to be taken to combat the upsurge in youth crime as long they involved better application of current laws instead of introducing new legislation.
"This is better than taking hasty action arising solely from motives related to elections," Beck told the news magazine Der Spiegel.
It is unlikely that any further concessions will be made by either party as the coalition partners plot their own slow and potentially bitter courses towards the 2009 general election.