India polls

Despite the rain and cold keeping people away from polling booths in the state, where the first phase of the staggered assembly elections have begun, Madan Kumar, a first-time voter was up early morning.

Enthusiastic voters

He was among the motley group of voters lining up at the primary school in Gazipur, nearly 500 kilometers from state capital Lucknow, braving the cold snap.

“I know voting will pick up. I have told my friends to vote earnestly and vote for a clean and honest leadership. Our state has suffered enough over the years,” Kumar, a college student told Deutsche Welle, minutes after he cast his vote.

As the day progressed, voting picked up and the turnout improved.

“This is what we are going to see as the next six phases happen. More people will exercise their franchise. There will be a change around,” exclaimed Noor Mohammed, a carpenter, from the temple town of Ayodhya in Faizabad. He refused to say which party he had voted for.

At the end of the day, the Election Commission said there was an estimated turnout of 62 percent in the first phase.

A tough election to call

Almost 17 million people are eligible to vote in this round and this staggered poll has set in motion an electoral battle which will have a bearing on national politics with all major contenders pulling out all the stops in this make or break electoral battle. Nearly 126 million voters are expected to cast their vote in 403 assembly seats during the elections.

Rahul Gandhi, son of the ruling Congress party president Sonia Gandhi, and the party's future prime ministerial candidate, has been criss-crossing the state for the last four months. He hopes the party's electoral strategy will oust his formidable opponent, Mayawati of the Bahujan Samaj Party, the state's chief minister, who has ruled the state with a heavy hand.  

Even the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been campaigning extensively in the politically vital state.

On the other hand, regional satrap Mulayam Singh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party is hoping to bounce back into dominance in the state with pollsters giving his party an edge in the multi-cornered fight.

“It is difficult to call this election now. It could well be a hung assembly but what we are seeing clearly is an end to Mayawati's political supremacy,” political analyst Ashok Malik told Deutsche Welle.

High stakes for the ruling Congress

The stakes are high for the Congress and especially for Rahul Gandhi, who has invested time and his energy in resuscitating the fortunes of the party. In the last general elections of 2009, to the astonishment of even party stalwarts, the Congress, led by Gandhi's campaigning, proved to be very effective and ended up picking up 21 of the 80 parliamentary seats.

But is this a formula which he can replicate this time around as well? There have been enthusiastic turnouts to his political rallies but whether that can translate into votes is a million dollar question.

“Assembly elections are a different ball game. Here, politics is dominated by loyalty to caste and religion. Also the rise of regional parties appealing to identity has made the political landscape even more fractious,” commentator Rasheed Kidwai told Deutsche Welle. Kidwai is a chronicler of the Congress Party and author of the book, “Sonia - A Biography.”

Nearly all major parties have promised sops for Muslims with an eye on the minority vote; Muslims comprise about 19 percent of the state's 200 million population.

For Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government, besieged by graft and rising prices, the Uttar Pradesh poll outcome will be crucial and could well determine the future of his tenure which is expected to end in 2014.

Though elections are also taking place in four other states - Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur - all eyes will be on Uttar Pradesh when the votes are counted on March 6. 

Author: Murali Krishnan
Editor: Sarah Berning