South Africa faces decisive 2024 election

"In 1994, I was 51 years old, and I voted for the first time," said John Kani, a prominent South African actor, as he told DW about his experience voting in the country's first post-apartheid election. "I was angry because it had taken so long to do something so simple as to put an X against the name of the party that I thought would deliver my freedom."

Thirty years later, ahead of elections scheduled for May 29, the South African theater pioneer is angry again. While he applauds certain things that have been achieved by the ruling African National Congress (ANC), he's "sad about the corruption and political violence."

"We had political leaders in 1994 who had a vision and a dream to serve our people," Kani said in Johannesburg. The ANC, headed by Nelson Mandela who became president, swept to power in those elections. "In 2024, we have political opportunists that are looking for work for the next five years."

The 80-year-old is not alone in feeling disillusioned about the rainbow nation's upcoming election, where voters will choose a new National Assembly and legislature in each of the country's nine provinces.

When the polling company Ipsos last year asked people in 29 countries about the direction their country was going, 83% of South Africans said it was on the wrong track. Only two other nations (Argentina and Peru) were seen as being more off track.

Many in the country of 62 million people face deep socio-economic problems. The most inequitable country on Earth, South Africa also has the world's highest unemployment rate. Nearly a third of the population is unemployed, and if you include those who are no longer seeking work, the rate goes up to 41%.

Rolling power cuts, known as loadshedding, have become the new normal. Africa's most industrialized nation had only 35 days in 2023 where the state-run power utility Eskom didn't have to cut power to some part of the country. The unpredictable power supply has a dramatic impact on everything from business to healthcare and schooling.

South Africa also faces widespread water shortages, and violent crime is soaring as is xenophobia against immigrants.

Ruling ANC 'struggling'

"Clearly, voters are disgruntled, they are depressed" and "increasingly blaming" the ANC for the country's woes, Daniel Silke, a Cape Town-based political analyst, said in an interview with DW's AfricaLink radio program.

"The party has been struggling," he said pointing out that the ANC polled below 50% in the 2021 local elections.

It's expected that the ANC, who has ruled South Africa since the 1994 elections, will have a hard time holding its outright majority this year in what would signal a momentous shift.

Early polls give the ANC around 42-45%. This is lower than the party has ever received in any post-apartheid election but still a bigger share than any other party.

"It may well drop below 50, but not that much below 50, so they would require perhaps one or two of the smaller political parties to form a governing coalition," Silke said. "And I think that's the more likely outcome in this election."

In South Africa, it's the lawmakers who elect the president. So, if the ANC's support falls below 50%, the party would have to make deals with smaller parties to secure the reelection of current president and ANC leader, Cyril Ramaphosa.

Democratic Alliance largest opposition party

The Democratic Alliance (DA) is the ANC's biggest challenger. It won just over 20% of the national vote in 2019, compared to 57% for the ANC. It currently governs the Western Cape province.

The DA, whose strongholds have historically been among the white demographic, is the only party to govern a province aside from the ANC. But polling at around 19%, it is unlikely to be able to challenge the ANC outside of a coalition.

It has formed an alliance called the Multi-Party Charter (MPC), whose members are largely aligned around the goal of stopping the ANC.

The other major opposition party is the left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), headed by firebrand Julius Malema. It's polling at around 16%. If the EFF joined the alliance, the group would have a real chance of toppling the ANC. But the DA is hugely critical of the EFF and has said it wants to prevent the party forming a coalition with the ANC.

Former President Jacob Zuma may also wrest some votes away from the ANC, especially at provincial level. Zuma, who is still hugely popular despite allegations of corruption against him, is endorsing the newly launched MK party.

Some 350 parties have registered for the 2024 elections, and for the first time, South Africa is also allowing independent candidates.

Falling voter turnout

"But even if people are fed up with the ANC, they're not quite sure what the alternatives are going to bring as well," said analyst Silke. "That's why I think one of the critical aspects of this election will be the percentage poll."

In 1994, 86% of registered voters turned out; in 2019, it slumped to 49%.

"Everyone was very, very excited in 1994," 38-year-old Busi Mhlahlele told DW. "But now, not anymore."

"[Ahead of elections], lots of things will be promised — jobs will be promised and change in everything," she told DW in Johannesburg where she was out shopping for her one-month-old baby.

"But now we know that they are lying. They would do it for their pockets."

Thuso Khumalo in South Africa, Isaac Mugabi and Josephine Mahachi contributed to this article.

Edited by: Benita van Eyssen