Somaliland unfazed by Somalia-Ethiopia compromise

The authorities in Somalia's breakaway region of Somaliland say their agreement to grant landlocked Ethiopia access to the sea in exchange for recognition remains intact despite Somalia and Ethiopia's deal to end the feud it caused. 

In January 2024, Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) that stated Ethiopia would recognize Somaliland as an independent nation in exchange for access to the Red Sea.

"The relationship between Somalia and Ethiopia, that is their business. We are minding our own business," Somaliland's special envoy to the African Union, Abdulahi Mohammud, told DW. "Any country that tries to interfere in our own internal affairs with regards to [the] case of Somalia vis a vis Ethiopia, that are two different issues that concerns the two countries, not us."

Somalia had maintained that Ethiopia's deal with Somaliland infringed on its sovereignty and territory.

Reduced tensions in Horn of Africa

Tensions had peaked in April with the expulsion of Ethiopia's ambassador to Somalia and the exclusion of Ethiopian troops from an African Union peacekeeping force to Somalia.

Ethiopia and Somalia's leaders have worked on hammering outa compromise to end their nearly year-old bitter dispute in the Turkish capital of Ankara last week.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the Ankara Declaration would ensure Ethiopia's long-desired access to the sea. The two sides agreed to work together on commercial arrangements and bilateral agreements that would ensure Ethiopia access to the sea under Somalia's sovereign authority.

Technical talks are due to start in February 2025 and be completed within four months.

"The meaning of technical arrangement is to discuss how the agreement will be implemented," Abdurahman Seid, London-based Horn of Africa political analyst, told DW. But the talks next year should settle the major differences between the two countries, Seid said.

"What we know is [Ethiopia's] Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has accepted the sovereignty of Somalia. The core thing is that the president of Somalia had set this as a precondition. [He] said that... the agreement with Somaliland does not respect the sovereignty of Somalia. And this [new deal] was accepted by the Ethiopian side."

Where does it leave Somaliland's push for recognition?

Seid told DW that in diplomatic language, mention of no "return to the past” in the Ankara Declaration implies that the Somaliland-Ethiopia MoU no longer holds.

"[The Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement] has become voided," Seid said. 

Somaliland unilaterally declared independence in 1991 but is not recognized by the African Union or the United Nations as an independent state.

Election campaigns in Somaliland this year focused on the deal with Ethiopia. New President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi said it lacked transparency and promised a review to ensure the deal aligns with Somaliland's strategic interests and broader goals for recognition.

In his recent inaugural address, he pledged to intensify efforts to gain international recognition for Somaliland and implement the agreement with Ethiopia. 

"The previous administration has signed an MoU with Ethiopia, and we were pursuing, making sure [the MoU] is finalized legally through parliamentary channels and the legal channels of from both sides. It was at that stage that there is a new administration," Abdullahi said.

"We have an agreement, a bilateral agreement on the bases of an MoU, it is standing, It's between Somaliland and Ethiopia. What Ethiopia does with Somalia, that's a completely different just a different story. As far as we are concerned, we have a binding MoU and we are pursuing it."

What could come next?

According to Horn of Africa analyst Abdurahman Seid there is a chance that the forthcoming talks between Ethiopia and Somalia could explore alternatives to the MoU between Somaliland and Ethiopia.

"Now they will try to reach a new approach with Turkey mediation. This can be about ports of Berbera, Kismayu about any port of Somalia. Although they set a time frame, it may take long period of time,” he said.

Ethiopia is in dire need of an access to a port to facilitate trade and, according to Seid, it seems to be exploring all options. But Ethiopia and Somalia need to establish trust. 

"Ethiopia should not be a threat for Somalia, and Somalia should not be a threat for Ethiopia. What will happen to countries that have a problem with Ethiopia, such as Eritrea and Egypt? Building trust takes time."

Edited by Benita van Eyssen