Iraq: A shadow of terror
June 30, 2014
The timing is no coincidence: Sunni terror organization ISIS has proclaimed an "Islamic caliphate" in the territories they control in Syria and Iraq right at the beginning of the Muslims' holy fasting month of Ramadan. In the caliphate, secular and religious affairs are in the hands of one leader.
The leader and caliph is Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, according to an audio-message the terror group distributed online. His real name is Ibrahim al-Badri. He was born in Samarra, Iraq, and studied religion in Baghdad. The ISIS-founder took over the vision of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the al Qaeda leader killed by US troops in 2006: he wanted to erase the border between Iraq and Syria.
The next few weeks will show whether his caliphate will continue to exist past Ramadan. The Iraqi army is currently working together with many Shiite volunteers to win back the strategically important town of Tikrit. ISIS took over Saddam Hussein's hometown on June 11, just one day after Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city, fell into their hands.
Who's to blame for ISIS' success?
The capture of Mosul is a turning point for Iraq. The new parliamentary representatives in Baghdad will have to deal with the fact that the country's borders as they are right now cannot be upheld. The first session of the new parliament is scheduled for Tuesday (01.07.2014). There's already heavy fighting over who is responsible for the current disaster in Iraq.
Many see Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki as the guilty party, because he neglected to make efficient use of the Iraqi army of almost one million soldiers and prepare them for the fight against ISIS. For months, officials from the Nineveh province with its capital Mosul and the Saladin province with its capital Tikrit have warned the prime minister about the danger - to no avail.
Other representatives accuse Maliki of being too busy with cementing his power to pay attention to changes in the provinces. They say he hasn't taken seriously the demands of people who had peacefully protested for more political say in the mostly Sunni province of Anbar for more than a year. He also hasn't granted the Kurds their constitutional right to a referendum on who should have administrative power in the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk. Sunni and Kurdish representatives plan to miss Tuesday's parliament session in protest.
Al-Maliki will not back down. He recently emphasized repeatedly that he won the April 30 parliamentary election, after coming under considerable international pressure to form a unity government with the participation of all ethnic groups in Iraq.
With 92 seats, Maliki's coalition is indeed the strongest force in parliament, but they cannot govern alone. Of the 328 seats, he needs 165 members to support him, so he can have a third term in office and form a majority government.
But that is looking increasingly unlikely. Even his former Shiite government partners have distanced themselves from him. So has Moqtada al-Sadr, whose Ahrar-bloc took second place in the election with 34 seats. He has chosen not to work further with Maliki, as has Ammar al-Hakim's Citizens Alliance.
Party members criticize Maliki
Criticism from Maliki's own party has also been forthcoming. It is becoming increasingly difficult to survive as prime minister for him, says former Minister of National Security, Abdul Karim al-Anzi, who is now the deputy of the Constitutional State Coalition.
"The situation is very complicated and the debates on the future government are far from over," he points out. The Iraqi constitution stipulates the government needs to be formed within 30 days after the first parliamentary session. However, the final formation of the government in 2010 took no less than nine months.
"There is no chance for an agreement between Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds with Maliki at the helm," says a politician from the prime minister's Constitutional State Coalition, who wished to remain anonymous.
Although public opinion suggests Maliki will not be at the top of the next Iraqi government, further developments are still possible. There are four candidates in talks ready to succeed Maliki – but each of them is disputed.
The former Kurdish MP Mahmoud Othman, who did not stand for a seat in parliament at this election, fears that parliament could maneuver itself into a dead end and become paralyzed under the pressure from ISIS' success. Othman: "That would be a total disaster for Iraq."