Russia's attacks on civilians in Idlib was strategic

Several days after attacks on camps housing displaced people near the city of Idlib in northwestern Syria, those living in the camps are still in shock.

"When we moved to the Maram camp a year ago, ... they promised us that this is a safe place," Maryam Bakir, a 32-year-old mother, told DW.

And yet, the camp was one of at least six settlements in Idlib province, the last major rebel stronghold in Syria, hit by intense shelling on Sunday.

Bakir remembers the exact time the bombs started falling — at 7:05 a.m.

"My children and I tried to take cover against the wall of the tent," Bakir said, referring to the shelter made of sheet metal that her family lived in.

Then she started crying.

The shrapnel of a missile cut through the wall's thin metal, killing Maryam Bakir's baby-boy, four-month-old Azam. 

"I don't know yet where we are going, but here, we are not safe," she said.

Azam was the youngest victim of the attacks, which saw cluster bombs dropped onto camps by Syrian forces with Russian support — despite a nominal cease fire between Russia and opposition supporter Turkey.

According to the voluntary civil defense organization Syrian Civil Defense (also known as White Helmets), which is active in the country's opposition areas, nine people were killed and 70 wounded in the strikes.

The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor, confirmed these numbers, adding that three children and a woman were among those killed.

The tent shelters of dozens of families were also destroyed.

One of these homes belonged to Inad Al-Ibrahim, who was out working when the bombs hit.

"When I returned to the camp after the strike, I called for my boys, and when I entered our destroyed tent, there was blood on the floor and a one-meter-long missile in the corner," the 45-year-old told DW. 

His youngest daughter survived unharmed, he said. But his wife and his four sons were seriously injured and are still in intensive care units in Syria and Turkey.

"I am so scared that I could lose my family any minute. Also, everything that we managed to take with us from our home village Al-Fatirah was destroyed in the attack," he recounted in a low voice. 

So far, the government of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad hasn't made an official statement about the attacks.

Russia's state-backed Tass news agency, however, reported that the camps' shelling was in response to a planned drone attack by insurgents on Syrian regime forces.

Meanwhile, some analysts believe the real reasons behind the attacks have more to do with Russia's and Turkey's geopolitical relationship interests, especially against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine.

Changing landscape

The past decade of civil war in Syria has seen Idlib province change dramatically. Originally a sparsely populated agricultural area, it had around 165,000 inhabitants in 2010. Now, its population has exploded to some 3.5 to 4 million inhabitants, of which at least half are people internally displaced by the conflict.

Furthermore, the region has turned into the country's last major stronghold of two opposition groups, which as well as fighting the Syrian government, are also warring with each other. 

These are the oppositional Syrian National Army (SNA), which is backed by Turkey, and the powerful Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militia, which Turkey has designated as a terror group.

"The recent attacks have to do with the renewed mobilization of HTS," said Sami Hamdi, managing director of International Interest, a London-based global risk and intelligence company.

Turkey is not alone in trying to combat HTS. Russia and the US also see the militia as foe. Hamdi believes Moscow conducted the air strikes on the camps to warn Turkey that "Russia is prepared to intervene if Turkey fails to contain HTS."

Other reasons could also be behind the strikes, says Alice Gower, director of geopolitics and security at the London-based think tank Azure Strategy.

Firstly, Russia's attacks on the refugee camps send a message to Russians that the government is strong and in control, despite its losses in Ukraine, she said. 

"Second, it punishes Turkey for its obduracy in the Black Sea," Gower said.

According to the Ukrainian Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies, Russia's squadron in the Mediterranean is "stuck" following Turkey's ban on the passage of Russian warships through the Dardanelles and Bosporus Straits, including the passage of Black Sea Fleet ships to their home bases in the Black Sea, and Turkey's closure of its airspace for Russian military and civilian aircraft heading to Syria. 

The airstrikes on the camps also deliver "a kick in the teeth to the international community, a reminder that Russia will pursue its own agenda and secure its own interests in any, and all, theatres, no matter the cost," Gower said.

This view is echoed by the Beirut-based Syrian-Canadian commentator Yazan Al-Saadi. "There is nothing new about the recent attack [on Idlib] per say. It is highly normalized to a horrendous degree, and this will continue as long as there are no systems on accountability," Al-Saadi said. 

Similarly, the international human rights watchdog Human Rights Watch (HRW) sees accountability as international responsibility.

"Countries should double their efforts to hold those responsible for these unlawful attacks accountable. Otherwise, they risk further emboldening a government that continues to use unlawful weapons to indiscriminately target civilians," Hiba Zayadin, HRW's senior researcher in the Middle East and North Africa Division investigating human rights abuses in Syria, told DW.

Warm words

Meanwhile, most global governments have sent condolences for the deaths via social media and reaffirmed their support for the appeal by the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and his Special Envoy to Syria under the lead of Geir Pedersen. 

"When we see attacks like this and the killing of displaced people, the UN will always stress above all the obligation on all parties to fully respect international humanitarian law and to protect civilians, including in any operations countering terrorism," Geir Pedersen's spokesperson Jenifer Fenton, told DW. 

"There is no way forward for Syria through new escalations of violence." 

Meanwhile, the clean-up in the camps has started.

"People are obviously still reeling," Hiba Zayadin from Human Rights Watch said, adding that "despite this, they have to look for ways to go on living while unfortunately waiting for the next strike to hit."

Omar Albam in Idlib, northwestern Syria, contributed to this article.

Edited by: Kate Hairsine