Report: Peace in Ukraine 'a long way off'

Anyone hoping that the war in Ukraine would end quickly, and that its aftermath would soon be dealt with, will be disappointed by the forecast of leading peace experts.

"We're not talking about months, but years, probably even decades," said Nicole Deitelhoff from the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF) as she joined three other institutes in presenting the Peace Report 2023 in Berlin on Tuesday.

Continue 'best efforts' for Ukraine

Her main advice to the German government was that, along with trans-Atlantic and European partners, it needs to give "continued best efforts" to provide military, economic and political support to Ukraine. This imperative, she added, had to be openly communicated to citizens, and their approval for this course would have to be sought.

Deitelhoff, a professor for International Relations at Goethe University Frankfurt, recommended that politicians prepare mediation and negotiations initiatives immediately, "even if peace is still a long way off."

She also said a "long-term, two-pronged strategy based on responsibility and trustworthiness" was needed. Specifically, Deitelhoff recommended an international contact group tasked with "outlining possible approaches and discussing possible solutions."

Talk to Vladimir Putin

She further advised the federal government to "seek out a dialogue with both conflict parties — that includes the Kremlin." Deitelhoff does not believe this would mean currying favor with Russian President Putin, but that it was all about "whether a little door might open somewhere." That's why it was "absolutely sensible" to stay on this course.

At the same time, Deitelhoff warned against halting military support to Ukraine to bring about immediate peace talks. In Germany, protesters from across the political spectrum have called for weapons deliveries from Western powers to be stopped, and several open letters signed by influential public figures have been published in the media.

However, according to the institute's report, that would not bring about lasting peace.

Fear of Russian expansion

Instead, its experts believe this would lead to the defeat and destruction of Ukraine, "accompanied by the occupation practice of torture, disappearances, sexual violence and targeted killing, just as were are currently observing in territories occupied by Russia."

In addition, it suggested that Russia's expansionism would not decrease, but increase after a refractory period. "That would further worsen the security situation for all of Europe," Deitelhoff cautioned.

Most war-related deaths in Ethiopia

The war in Ukraine may continue to dominate headlines and focus the attention of the world's major powers, the team of authors warned not to forget such other violent conflicts like those in Yemen and Sudan.

Conrad Schetter of the Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies (BICC) drew particular attention to the civil war in Ethiopia's Tigray region: "Last year, it was not the war in Ukraine, but the violent conflict in Tigray that saw the most victims of violence, with over 100,000 affected."

The report did not contain a universally applicable answer to the question of how Germany should act in terms of weapons exports in light of the war in Ukraine and other military conflicts.

When examining countries like India, Ursula Schröder from the Hamburg Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy (IFSH)  spoke of a "dilemma." While she was in favor of cooperation with the Global South, she also wondered, "where is the red line?” She believed that was a difficult question for German foreign policy to answer.

Fears of a new arms race

In general, the experts warned of further armaments, especially with nuclear weapons. While Deitelhoff did not want to speak of a new arms race, she did warn the threat was becoming increasingly clear. Her colleague Tobias Debiel from the Duisburg Institute for Development and Peace (INEF) went even further: "It's also about the fact that there are currently rhetorical races."

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), another major international peace studies institute, not only issued warnings about nuclear warheads, but about a change in how nuclear war is spoken about — especially in Russia and North Korea.

That is why Debiel advised Western states to employ "very sober language." In the end, war was not only decided by weapons, she said, adding that "rhetoric plays a decisive role in this regard."

This article was translated from German.