Primor: Israeli Talks With Hamas Could Begin Soon

Ari Primor was Israel's ambassador to Germany from 1993 to 1999. He is currently the director of the Center for European Studies at the University of Herzliya.

DW-WORLD.DE: The Kadima Party did worse than expected before the election. How difficult will that make building a government?

Avi Primor: Building a government will not be as easy as predicted. Still, the right is weaker and, importantly, is divided, which makes it impossible for it to form part of a coalition, but it can still keep a center-left coalition from coming together. That means we will have a coalition made from the Kadima and Labor parties, along with a few smaller parties. I assume that a solid coalition with a majority in Parliament will be formed in a short time.

How do you explain that the Kadima Party won 10 seats fewer than expected?

The experts have always said that the Kadima Party would not do as well as the polls predicted. In addition to that, the party's candidate made a couple of tactical mistakes that cost him a few seats.

But what we see is that a majority of the Israeli population wants to be separate from the Palestinians or have negotiations with the Palestinians and, if possible, even peace. At any rate it wants the end of occupation and vacating of settlements. There is a large majority for these ideas between the center and left parties.

Ehud Olmert made an announcement to the Palestinians on the evening of the elections. How will the new Israeli government act toward the Hamas administration?

During the campaigns the top candidates from all the parties said, "We will never speak with the Hamas movement or a Hamas government." That means we will have absolutely no negotiations with the Palestinians since they would be conducted by a Hamas government. If anything we could only have one-sided developments.

That was necessitated by the election. As soon as the election was over, even the designated President Ehud Olmert said, "Yes, we want to negotiate with the Palestinians." He did not mention Hamas specifically but who else would he negotiate with, if not the democratically elected Palestinian government? He wants to negotiate with the Palestinians and the Labor Party will force him to in any case. And he said that only when the talks fail would we consider unilateral action such as pulling out of the occupied territories. So things look optimistic.

What time frame do you see these negotiations having before Ehud Olmert says he's unilaterally pulling out?

There will not be direct negotiations right away because no one wants to lie to themselves.

The Israelis in terms of the Hamas movement and the Hamas movement in terms of their ideology not to recognize Israel and to destroy Israel. It is going to become bit more complicated. We would expect mediatory help behind the scenes from the Egyptians dealing with the practical and pragmatic issues that have to do with daily life -- especially improvements to the Palestinians' living conditions in the occupied territories.

That will gradually develop into a peace process. I do not know how long it will take, but I can say that it is in the interest of both sides. The Hamas movement needs Israel to satisfy the Palestinians who want improved living conditions right away. And Israel needs peace. That is what the Hamas movement can provide. In August 2004 it put a ceasefire into effect and respected it. Attacks in Israel today are conducted by other groups, not the Hamas movement.

I think pragmatic contact to solve daily problems will begin right away -- as soon as the coalition is formed. The Egyptians will make sure it happens. No on can predict hzow quickly that develops into a peace process.

What can the new Hamas government do now?

For Israel there is one criteria and that is peace. If Hamas does not only keep to and respect its ceasefire but also as a government keeps other extremist groups in check, not to say to combat them, then that would be a sign to the Israeli government.

How do you interpret the ultra-nationalists' good results?

The right has not disappeared. The people who are right extremists or right nationalists or religious rightists still exist. They are a little weaker and fewer in number, but they have not disappeared. Only the division of votes is a little different. A different extreme right party profited when the Likud Party lost so much. This is a different separation inside of the right.