Russia-Poland relations

Amid the outpouring of grief which followed the plane crash in Russia which killed the Polish President Lech Kaczynski, his wife and dozens of politicians and military officials, a sense of surprise at Russia's reaction was also felt throughout Poland.

In recent days, surprise at Moscow's dignified handling of the aftermath of the tragedy which tore a hole in the Polish political, military and social elite has turned to tentative hope for many Poles; hope that decades of animosity and difficult relations can be reversed in favour of closer ties with Russia.

While reverence and respect are common in times of mourning, many experts believe that as time moves on, the tragic events of the weekend could prove to be the catalyst for a new era in Russian-Polish relations.

"There is a chance for a new beginning," Alexander Rahr, a Russia expert at the German Council for Foreign Relations in Berlin, told Deutsche Welle.

"Moscow immediately responded to Poland's misfortune with the right words and gestures. Both nations are very emotional and they are aware that no-one in either country will quickly forget the pictures and gestures from the last few days."

"This terrible catastrophe can act as a catharsis in the difficult Polish-Russian relations," Piotr Kaczynski, a Russia expert at the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels, told Deutsche Welle.

"United in the tragedy, the two great European nations have been long divided by a history of war, domination and mistrust. History cannot and will not be forgotten, but it needs to be comprehended by both nations."

Putin's human face surprises and encourages Poland

One of the most surprising aspects of Russia's response was Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's decision to personally oversee the investigation of the crash which killed all 96 people on board.

Poland's news channels have been replaying the scenes of Putin's meeting with his Polish counterpart Donald Tusk amid the debris of the wreckage; the Russian prime minister solemnly embracing Tusk in Poland's hour of need.

The effect of these scenes and the image of Putin, head bowed, bidding farewell to Kaczynski's coffin at Smolensk airport before it was flown back to Warsaw, have touched Poles in a way many thought impossible given the nature of Putin's previous attitude to their country.

Poles tentatively embracing idea of potential detente

The chance for conciliation at such a sad time has also been seized upon by many quarters of the Polish press.

"It's a paradox but the tragedy in Smolensk is a chance to connect our nations like never before," Marcin Wojciechowski wrote in a column in Poland's leading daily, Gazeta Wyborzca. "Russia's behaviour after the tragedy in Smolensk totally contradicts the thesis of those who claim that closer relations between Russia and Poland are impossible," he said.

There was also praise for the decision by Russia‘s main TV channel to air the previously banned, Oscar-nominated movie directed by Andrzej Wajda, Katyń, on Sunday. The film documents the massacre of more than 20,000 Polish officers by the Soviet secret police in the forests of nearby Katyn in 1940.

Read more on how Russian-Polishs ties could improve

Despite continuing problems, an opportunity arises

Shared grief and offers of support, of course, don't solve the political problems that have divided the two nations in recent times.

While the tragedy may put many things in perspective and put Russia and Poland on the road to reconciliation, once the mourning subsides the two governments will find that they still disagree over issues ranging from energy, foreign policy, Poland's support of NATO's planned eastern expansion, and historical issues which sometimes date back centuries.

But in spite of the real political difficulties the two countries face, the reconciliation process also gets a real chance. Experts believe they should take it.

Cornelius Ochmann of the Bertelsmann Stiftung told Deutsche Welle that he saw the beginning of an "unstoppable process" of reconciliation between the two nations.

"The spontaneous, direct reactions from Russia to the Polish misfortune were so deep that they can only lead, in my view, to an irreversible process of reconciliation between the two countries," he said.

Ochmann said the plane crash will force Russia to look at its own past national tragedies and that this could lead to a conciliatory tone predominating between the two countries from now on.

"Every chance can be ruined by the wrong tone," he said. "But right now, the Russians and Poles are hitting the right one."

Russia moved to make unprecedented statements

Anna Yastrebova, a Russia expert at the Central European University in Vladivostok, believes that a change of attitude in Russia is already visible and that unprecedented actions hint at a growing thaw.

"What is important is the situation in Russia just before and after the plane crash where crimes committed by Stalin have been admitted and denounced," she told Deutsche Welle.

"I was quite surprised to see the programs on the Russian state-controlled channel during which its presenters stated that Stalin was a criminal and people surrounding him were criminals too. Or the movie about Katyn by the Polish director that was shown even before the tragedy and after. This has been one of the key issues for the Polish politics and country which have been poisoning relations between the nations."

"Who knows, maybe the tragedy will have a transformative impact on Russia’s internal debate on its own history, too?" said Piotr Kaczynski. "For the moment, one thing is sure: for the first time in decades there are people in Poland speaking of 'friends from the East.'"

Russia needs to follow up empathy with concrete action

Stanislav Secrieru, associate researcher at the Center for East European and Asian Studies in Bucharest, believes that there is a chance for reconciliation but much more needs to be done to heal deeper, older wounds.

"There is a big question mark regarding which way Polish-Russian relations will go after the presidential plane crash in Russia that decapitated Poland's political, military and economic elite," Secrieru told Deutsche Welle.

"However, Russia made no real steps to meet promises made back in 1993 to punish, if alive, those who committed the crime of the Katyn massacre and make reparations," he added. "More than that, many in Poland are still waiting for official apologies for Katyn."

"Seen in this light, the short moment of empathy generated by the recent tragic events could fade away rapidly, returning relations to the status quo unless symbolism is followed on the Russian side by concrete steps. It seems that neither mentally nor politically Russia is ready for such a change."

Author: Nick Amies
Editor: Rob Mudge