Elusive peace

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle was visibly concerned on Friday, expressing hope that the day "would not go down in history as the day the Middle East peace process reached a new phase of intransigence."

Midday Friday, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas formally submitted his bid for full statehood to UN Secretary General Ban-Ki Moon, despite warnings by the US, Israel and some European countries that such a move could escalate the situation in the Middle East.

In their subsequent speeches at the UN, both Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reaffirmed their commitment to peace, but at the same time they refused to budge from their old positions, which have so far made negotiations impossible.

Westerwelle called on the international community to redouble their efforts to mediate, and later on Friday the Middle East Quartet released a statement. The group, which is made up of the US, the EU, the UN and Russia, called on the two sides to start negotiations within a month and come up with proposals on security and border issues within three months. The Quartet's timetable further calls for "substantial progress" within six months and a peace agreement by the end of 2012.

Security Council meets Monday

Westerwelle welcomed the declaration, saying that he hoped that "setting a precise timeframe for restarting and following through with direct talks can overcome the standstill in the Middle East."

But it is unclear what will happen if the two sides do not stick to the timetable, as the Quartet has no power to impose terms. It has made proposals in the past, and apart from the timeframe it does not contain any more details on the possible borders of a Palestinian state or the Jewish settlements.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the declaration "represents the firm conviction of the international community that a just and lasting peace can only come through negotiations between the parties."

That is why the EU and the US in particular tried to dissuade Abbas from applying for full membership at the UN, even though the majority of countries in the General Assembly is sympathetic to the Palestinian bid and applauded Abbas on Friday.

The UN Security Council, which will decide on the Palestinian bid, will now discuss the issue on Monday. A decision is not expected that day, the setting up of a committee is the most anyone can hope for. And even if the Palestinians get the necessary nine out of 15 votes in the UN's highest body, the US has already announced it will veto the bid. That makes the bid effectively futile.

Quartet run its course?

It is not clear yet what impact this step will have, in the Security Council, in Israel, which has threatened retaliation, and in the US Congress, where lawmakers have threatened to cut annual funding for the Palestinians worth half a billion dollars. But according to Khaled Elgindy from the Washington-based Brookings Institution, the bid is not the disaster many make it out to be.

"We can see now that a large part of the international community has realized that the strategy so far hasn't worked," said Elgindy, who was an adviser to the Palestinians in their negotiations with Israel from 2004 to 2009.

His argument is that you cannot destroy a peace process that does not exist and that Abbas' bid "could kick off a process that could bear fruit," bringing about new ideas, new protagonists or a change of influence of the existing protagonists. Elgindy thinks the Quartet has been ineffective and dominated by the US for years. France and other European countries may now have a chance to gain more influence in the peace process. But Elgindy does not think talks will be resumed any time soon.

Alternatives to statehood

James Phillips from the conservative Heritage Foundation agrees with that, but thinks that the situation in the Middle East has worsened with the UN bid. He also believes that "peace is impossible as long as Hamas has a stranglehold on the Gaza strip. Because even if Abbas and Netanyahu come to the perfect agreement, Hamas can shoot it to pieces with a new round of rocket attacks," adding that no one is in a position to mediate there.

Add to that the real possibility that peaceful Palestinian demonstrations could turn violent, and the long-term prospects for peace seem slim. Nevertheless, the Palestinians have taken the initiative. If their bid is denied by the Security Council, they have other options.

Their observer status at the UN could be upgraded or they could apply for observer status as a non-member country. That would allow them to invoke the International Criminal Court in The Hague. This option is as good as guaranteed as it has a majority in the Security Council.

Author: Christina Bergmann, New York / ng
Editor: Ben Knight