Parties in Tight Race as German Polls Loom

The death of a neo-Nazi candidate could delay the final result of Germany's Sept. 18 elections and even the appointment of the country's new chancellor by at least one week, an electoral official said Thursday.

Irene Schneider-Böttcher, head of the electoral commission in the eastern state of Saxony, said it had been forced to delay voting in one district of Dresden after the candidate of the far-right National Democratic Party, Kerstin Lorenz (photo), died following a stroke.

A date for a new by-election to be held after the main poll had not yet been set for the city's district with its roughly 219,000 voters.

Political observers have speculated that the by-election could sway the result of the whole general election if the race between the parties remains as tight as it appears at present.

"The by-election in Dresden could be of decisive importance in case of a close result on Sept. 18," federal electoral officer Johann Hahlen told German public television station MDR.

A grand coalition?

Signs that the outcome of the general election could indeed be a close one hardened on Friday as the opposition conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by chancellor candidate Angela Merkel, and its Bavarian sister party (CSU) saw their support slipping further in opinion poll ratings.

A poll conducted by Infratest dimap for ARD public television was the third this week to show that Merkel's once-comfortable lead has diminished since a television debate with Chancellor Gerhard Schröder.

Though the CDU/CSU remains the strongest party, its support has dropped to 41 percent while the free-market liberal Free Democrats (FDP) -- the CDU's preferred coalition partners -- came in at 6.5 percent. That would give a center-right coalition a combined total of 47.5 percent, less than a total of 49.5 percent for all other parties in parliament.

Schröder's Social Democrats (SPD), meanwhile, has surged to 34 percent in poll ratings, while his Green party coalition partners are at 7 percent. The Left Party stands at 8.5 percent. The SPD has ruled out a coalition with the Left Party, a recently formed grouping of former communists and SPD dissenters led by Oskar Lafontaine.

The latest poll has added to signs that Merkel might be forced into a so-called "grand coalition" with Schröder's center-left SPD.

It's an alliance that isn't welcomed by experts and industry bosses. Many fear that it could lead to political deadlock, with the SPD preventing Merkel from pushing through reforms of the tax system and labor market, while others worry that political bickering could lead to a dilution of the reforms Schröder has made.

However, Friday's ARD poll showed the idea of a grand coalition finds favor among voters. Thirty-six percent said it would be "the best thing for Germany" and only 29 percent preferred a center-right coalition.

SPD getting back on track?

The previously lackluster German election campaign, largely dominated by economic issues, has been injected with some dynamism since the televised face-off between Merkel and Schröder last Sunday.

Schröder's smooth performance in the TV debate has largely been given credit for the resurgence of the SPD, which had been written off by many experts in recent months.

The SPD has since gained in poll ratings on issues such as tax policy, pensions and social justice.

In a direct comparison, Schröder himself -- who is largely seen as media-savvy and close to the people -- was well ahead of his challenger, according to the latest ARD poll. Fifty-four percent of those questioned said they would vote for Schröder if the vote were for the main candidate alone rather than a party. Only 35 percent said they preferred Merkel.

However, the conservatives fared better than the SPD on issues such as policies for the future, the economy and jobs.

Though it still remains questionable whether Schröder will manage to reach his stated goal of 38 percent of the vote within a week, the chancellor was optimistic Friday that the SPD could gain further ground.

"There's a lot of movement, everything is possible," he said.